Guesstimates on January 31, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1754-1772.  The ES is on its way to 1720.

QQQ:  Downside target is 82.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Support is at 1060. Temporary resistance is at 1185.

Apple:  The big drop on earnings news put AAPL back in sync with the bearish market trend but the uptrend in AAPL from its 385 low last April is still intact. Support now is at 485, just above the 200 day moving average. My best guess is that this support level will hold and that AAPL will resume its advance to 600 and higher.  

Update

Here again are charts of the three indicators I used to monitor the general market trend.

You can see that both the Dow and the S&P 500 are both below their 50 day  moving averages (green lines). So two of these three indicators are below the 50 day moving average and this is pretty good evidence that the short to intermediate term trend is downward.

In such a situation the 50 day moving average itself is typically resistance for the first rally. Right now this is the 1812 level is the S&P and the 16,154 level in the Dow.

For the moment my downside target are the 200 day moving averages (red lines). For the Dow this is the 15,460 level and for the S&P the 1705 level. If the S&P reaches its target the Dow will probably stop below its 200 day moving average.

Needless to say, a drop which takes both these averages visibly below their 200 day moving averages would have very bearish implications and would probably mean that a bear market is underway. I would expect a bear market to drop the averages about 25% from their recent high points.

Guesstimates on January 30, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1771-1788.  The ES is on its way to 1720.

QQQ:  Downside target is 82.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Support is at 1060.

Apple:  The big drop on earnings news put AAPL back in sync with the bearish market trend but the uptrend in AAPL from its 385 low last April is still intact. Support now is at 485, just above the 200 day moving average. My best guess is that this support level will hold and that AAPL will resume its advance to 600 and higher.  

Guesstimates on January 29, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1764-1787.  The ES is on its way to 1720.

QQQ:  Downside target is 82.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Upside target at 1150 has been reached. Some sort of stall is likely here and support now is at 1060.

Apple:  The big drop on earnings news yesterday put AAPL back in sync with the bearish market but the uptrend from its 385 low last April is still intact. Support now is at 485, just above the 200 day moving average. My best guess is that this support level will hold and that AAPL will resume its advance to 600 and higher.