Friday, January 03, 2014

Guesstimates on January 3, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1826-1836. The ES dropped 26 points into the overnight low at 1820.50 and my best guess is tghat this ended the drop from 1846.50. Short term fluctuations aside the ES is headed for 1900 over the next several weeks.
QQQ:  Upside target was 88 and has been reached but continuation up to 92 is likely.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: A New York close below 1.36 would mean that the Euro is headed for 1.33. Failing such a close I will stick with my view that it is headed for 1.40-1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.
March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.
Google:  Upside target is 1150 and support beneath the market stands at 1030.
Apple:  AAPL is now probably headed for 600-610.


Doug said...

I've been following you recently and thank you for your work and guidance.

I think we're too far stretched from the 200 SMA to go straight up. If we head up to 1900 without a pullback, I'll be selling on the way up as I think we'd be setting-up ourselves for a crash scenario. Bullishness is also off the charts but this is volatile as you know.

I also write a blog on Blogger at

It's mostly about economics and politics but I sometimes post thoughts about the stock market.

Thanks again,

A pullback to 1760 or 1740 would renew my confidence in the advance. No pullback here

AM said...

Doug, no offense, but why should market care about your confidence in the advance? The prices are never too high to buy or too low to sell. Shorting such strong rallies early is a sure way to end up in a poor house.

Ultimately, the price - it is what it is and we are where we are. Follow the trend.