Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Guesstimates on January 15, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1832-18423. Yesterday’s rally completely retraced Monday’s break. This U-turn is a very bullish indication. It means that the rally to 1900 has resumed.
QQQ:  Upside target is now 90.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.
March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.
Google:  Upside target at 1050 has been reached. Some sort of stall is likely here and support now is at 1060.
Apple:  AAPL is now probably headed for 600-610.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I mentioned a few weeks back the importance of the jan 2 2014 date
and also mentioned that i could not find a compact top formation yet could count 107 calendar days from a low to a high from the oct 9 low which made me consider the jan 24th 27th date as the more important date .well here is another piece to the puzzle .nov 13 to nov 27 market went up for 10 trade days then fell for 10 trade days then up again for 10 trade days into dec 27 then dow for 10 trade days into jan 13 if this continues then jan 24 27th would be the next 10 trade day swing high . and while i prefer the dow to fail to make a new high if it does i would look for the 16788 area to be resistance and would finally fulfill the time side of the equation for a larger drop .
that aside my overall bias for the year is somewhat similar to 2004.
decennial pattern suggest jan 22 high , low to low to high counts
jan 24 27th a high , 107 cal days from a low to a high suggest jan 24 and the 10 trade days swings suggest jan 24 27th a swing high .to many reasons for me to have a longer term bullish bias other then the next 8 trading days .
lastly the past sever years of market action has been 252 trade days up that came on jan 2 2014 .
a typical decline if history repeats would mean a mid march low . until i actually see the depth of the decline from now ( next week ) into march i cant really
have an overly bearish bias .
i tend to think for the year nothing more then choppy sideways up down action in some sort of complex wave structure .
good luck