Friday, March 14, 2014

Guesstimates on March 14, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1824-1840.  Starting today I will be trading and analyzing the June 2014 e-mini contract. Yesterday the ES dropped substantially below its March 12 low, thus breaking the rhythm of the advance from the February 5 low. This implies that the market is in the early stages of a move down which will probably amount to 100-150 points.
QQQ:  Downside target is 86.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed up to 1.43.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
April Crude:  Crude has spent the last two days below support at 100 so I think the rally above the 102-03 level was just the last gasp upward prior to a more substantial decline. Downside target is 92 but I think that may well be only the first stopping point in a bigger decline.
April Gold:  The market is headed above 1400.
March Silver: A move as high as 26.00 is underway.
Google:  Google stopped at 1234, shy of my 1250 target, and now appears to be on its way down to support near 1090.
Apple:  The downtrend in the general market is likely to carry AAPL substantially lower. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 492, would be very bearish.  

1 comment:

Kelly Blaine said...

100-150 points ?

This is likely a generational top, which will make an eventual move to sub Spx 1000. Enjoy the balloon while it lasts.