Thursday, March 20, 2014

Guesstimates on March 20, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: If the ES drops visibly below yesterday’s 1842 low I think the market will be telling us that a much bigger drop is underway. Unless and until that happens I will maintain my bullish stance. Today’s range estimate is 1845-60.
QQQ:  Upside target is 94.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro shows a downside breakout from the trading range it formed during the past week. I expect this reaction to end at a higher low near 1.36.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  I now think the rally above the 102-03 level was just the last gasp upward prior to a more substantial decline. Downside target is 92 but I think that may well be only the first stopping point in a bigger decline.
April Gold:  The current reaction is the biggest by far since the low near 1180. Support is at 1310 and weakness below there will mean that the rally is over.
May Silver: Support is at 20.00 and weakness below there will mean that the rally is over.
Google:  The market averages have turned up so Google will probably hit the 1250 target soon.
Apple:  A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 492, would be very bearish. In the mean time I still think a rally to 600 or above is more likely than not.  

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