Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Guesstimates on December 16, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1971-95. The ES took a peek below the 1970-75 support zone overnight. I think the market will spend most of its time today above 1970 and if it does then the 1961.50 low probably ended the drop from 2072 on December 5. I see no sign that the bull market has ended and in any case expect the ES to hold above its 200 day moving average, currently at 1939.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
January Crude:   Crude dropped as low as 53.60 last night, well below support at 57-59. The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240. Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.


SamuelC said...

Hi Carl,
Seeing the steepness of the drop since Dec. 5, and the Ascending Middle Section that I've found on the Dow, I've come to think the odds are over 50% that we're in a correction/cyclical bear market.

I have the Dow chart with the Middle Section labeled here:


The Middle Section implies a drop lasting until August.

Let me know if you have any comments on that pattern.

Unknown said...

GOOGL has been below your support of $520 since yesterday. Today it it even went below the May 2014 lows of $511s intraday.

Any revisions?