Friday, January 16, 2015

Guesstimates on January 16, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1981-2016. As long as the ES spends little or no time below its 200 day moving average at 1958 I think the market will soon begin a move to new bull market highs.
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The Swiss news dropped the Euro a bit below 1.16 but I think that will be it on the downside for a while. Longer term I expect the Euro to drop below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
February Gold:  Gold broke above 1240 resistance and will probably reach 1275 soon. But I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is now at 98.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
A question on contrarian approach.

Publication of "flipping houses" books back in 2006-2007 had fairly well warned about impending real estate decline.

I see that per Amazon, book on flipping was #1 seller in 2013 (, but yet a good two years later, the market has indeed roared higher.

Would appreciate any comment on this. Thanks!