Thursday, January 08, 2015

Guesstimates on January 8, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2024-2044. Tuesday’s low ended the drop from the late December top and a rally to new bull market highs is underway.
QQQ: The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality will end near 1.80% and be followed by a move to and above the 3.00% level.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB promised quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program has dropped the Euro into the 1.18-1.20 target zone. There is strong support here which extends as low as 1.16. I think the Euro will hold support for a while but that it eventually will be broken. The ensuing drop would probably put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is now at 98.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Last year ( 2014 ) i expected the market to go sideways to down .
the market indexes went sideways to up . as i look at many stocks though I'm noticing that many individual stocks actually had a sideways year last year and at the recent lows a few days were down from the dec 2013/jan 2014 highs .
The reason i find this interesting is i think last year should be considered a bearish year . we did not see 406 calendar days from a high to low yet some stocks went sideways and were down for 13 months others roughly a year just about exactly . the fact that they were basically flat tells me that this market is very strong despite the bearish view around the world .
I have mentioned before i i felt we had until oct 2017 before any major top yet i also except my theories as theories and reality based on actual market action .
My view today based on my historical market based data is that the Dow is in an acceleration phase and has been for a few years now yet it does not show any price break to change my mind .If history proves true the Dow should test the 23000-24000 by April 2016. I would expect that a new set of leaders should begin to show themselves. some stocks should outperform the market by a lot .
good luck