Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Guesstimates on October 31, 2018

December S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance is in the 2765-85 zone was defeated yesterday afternoon. Now the ES is up against even stronger resistance at 2715. If it fails as well then the odds are that the 2603 low ended the drop from 2947. If 2715 resistance holds another leg down to 2590 and possibly to 2529 is likely. But in either case the drop from 2947 is complete or nearly so and the strength of the subsequent rally will tell whether or not a bear market has begun. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline ratio are all trading below their respective 200 day moving averages. This is not necessarily terminal for the bull market – it happened in 2010, 2011, and 2016 and in each case new bull market highs followed. Still, with the current bull market nearing the 10 year market it makes sense to take these moving average penetrations seriously.  
QQQ: The drop from 187 will probably continue to 157 or so.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is 65. A rally past 76 will probably take crude up to 90.  
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone. Upside target is 1265.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: Support is at 1060 has failed and GOOG is likely to drop to 950 or so.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR has poked its nose back above 30. If it can stay there a big rally will ensue. In the meantime I am sticking with a bearish prognosis.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made or will make its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.

No comments: