Thursday, January 10, 2019
Guesstimates on January 10, 2019
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has backed off from 2603 resistance but so far is holding support at 2563. Another attempt at 2603 is likely unless the ES establishes itself below 2560 first. In the latter event a drop to 2512-17 will become likely. The biggest and most dynamic part of the rally from the December 24 low is behind us. It is unlikely that the ES rally as far as its 200 day moving average which currently is near 2740 and declining. I anticipate a bear market low near 2100 in October 2019.
QQQ: The Q’s dropped well below 150 during the Christmas crash to 142. Resistance is now at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude has reached resistance at 51. If that fails a swing up to 59 is likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple: AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook: FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.