Thursday, January 03, 2019
Guesstimates on January 3, 2019
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has begun a drop which will probably end near 2380 but any case above the crash low. The subsequent rally should carry the ES close to or above 2600. A bear market low near 2100 in October 2019 seems like a reasonable projection.
QQQ: The Q’s dropped well below 150 during the Christmas crash to 142. Resistance now is 15 points or so above that temporary low. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop into the 2.30-2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: Weird behavior during the Japanese holidays dropped the market to 103, nearly all the way to the 100 target following a failure of 109 support. The 109 level is now resistance above the market which should eventually reach 100 and probably move even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude bounced off of support at 42 but the rally is unlikely to carry past resistance at 51 before a drop to 38 develops.
Gold: The market has passed 1285 resistance and is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple: AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook: FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is back below 30 and probably headed for 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.