Thursday, January 17, 2019
Guesstimates on January 17
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES finally moved above 2603 resistance yesterday but the repeated bounces off of that level are signs of weakness. Either the ES has begun a drop fo between 80 and 150 points or will soon do so after reaching 2632 resistance. Looking further ahead I expect the ES to swing up and down between its Christmas Crash low at 2316.75 and its 200 day moving average at 2740 for the next few months. A subsequent bear market low near 2100 is likely in October 2019.
QQQ: Resistance is now at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro couldn’t hold 114.50 support so resistance above the market is now 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple: AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook: FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.