Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Guesstimates on December 21, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1242-1252. Support remains at 1225 and 1250 is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Guesstimates on December 20, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1238-1250. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support remains at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Guesstimates on December 17, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1234-1246. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support remains at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading for the past two weeks. As you know I think the market is building a top below 1250 resistance. When it is complete I expect a break of 50-75 points.

However I think there will be a couple of short term buying opportunities while this top is being built. The first one is upon us. The early November top in the December '10 contract was 1224.75 (red dash line) and I think this level will prove to be support. The last reaction was nearly 18 points measured by 24 hour trading and a reaction of that size now would end also at 1225 (blue dash rectangles). I have drawn a green dash trend channel on this chart. Yesterday's low occurred right on the lower channel line but I am guessing that the market will drop a little more into the green oval target zone before this reaction ends.

The next upswing should carry the ES to 1250 or so. From there I think another 20 point drop will develop within the context of the top building process.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1225-1235. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Guesstimates on December 15, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1226-1238. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Guesstimates on December 14, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1227-1240. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

February Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Monday, December 13, 2010

three peaks and a domed house - update

As you know I think the stock market's action during the past year has been following George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern. I last commented on this phenomenon in this post.

Above you will see a schematic of the typical three peaks and a domed house pattern. I think the April 2010 top in the Dow was point 7, the third peak. The July 2010 low was point 10, the bottom of the reaction which separates the three peaks from the domed house. Point 14 was the August 25, 2010 low. The importance of point 14 is that in a typical formation the top of the domed house, point 23, develops about 7 months and 10 days after point 14. This projects a top in early April, 2011.

At the moment I think the market is in the midst of the "five reversals" part of the domed house, points 16-20. This is typically an extended trading range with a slight upward slope. I am guessing that the early November top was point 15, the November 16 low was point 16, and that a top is developing now which will be point 17.

My best guess is that point 23 will develop near or above the Dow 12000 and the S&P 1300 levels. If this is a classic 3PDH formation then the subsequent drop will be a full fledged bear market, but should only carry down to the start of the whole formation. This would take both averages a little below their July 2010 lows, a drop of 30% or so and will probably last about 8 months.

Guesstimates on December 13, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1233-1244. I think the short term trend is still upward. Next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

Februaryy Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - March Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Guesstimates on December 10, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1225-1238. I think the short term trend is still upward. Next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Thursday, December 09, 2010

a 50-75 point drop is imminent


Here are two charts which are conveying an important message. The bottom chart shows the cumulative total of the difference between the number of advancing and the number of declining issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange each day. The top chart shows my favorite oscillator, the 10 day moving average of advancing issues.

Both these indicators warn of impending weakness in the averages. The cumulative advance-decline line is still visibly below its November 8 top while the S&P 500 is visibly above that same top. This is a real change in behavior because the advance-decline line has generally been much stronger than the averages during the past 18 months. This bearish divergence between the AD line and the S&P tells me that the market will soon drop 50-75 points before the bull market can resume.

The top chart of the 10 day moving average of advancing issues shows a series of bearish divergences going back to early September. This is again a bearish message.

Normally, divergences like these don't worry me too much. But the market is trading near 1250 resistance (the March 2008 low on the Bear Stearns failure) and has advanced with little corrective activity for nearly 4 months to a new bull market high.

All in all I think we shall see a 50-75 point drop before the S&P can move much if at all above 1250.

Guesstimates on December 9, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1225-1238. I think the short term trend is upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Guesstimates on December 8, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1221-1235. I think the short term trend is upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

headed up

Here is an hourly bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis for the past month. Early in November the market attempted to break out above the April top at 1216.75 (green horizontal dash line). It did not succeed and a 50 point break ensued.

Now the ES is making another breakout attempt. This time things look more encouraging. After a two day hesitation and a bearish employment number last Friday the market has rallied further to 1235 this morning. A drop from this morning's high that equals the biggest since the November 29 low would only carry the market down to the breakout level (blue rectangles). That breakout level is now support, a fact emphasized by the fact that the lower trend channel line is now roughly at the 1211 level and is rising.

I think a drop back to support is likely (green oval). But it should only last a day or two and it should be followed by a rally to the next resistance level at 1250. This is resistance because the March 2008 low on the Bear Stearns failure was 1253.

This is a bull market. I think the S&P will reach 1300 by April.

Guesstimates on December 7, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1225-1237. I think the short term trend is upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Guesstimates on December 6, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1210-1224. I think the short term trend is upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Guesstimates on December 3, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1209-1223. I think the short term trend is upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is underway.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs is underway.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Guesstimates on December 2, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1201-1215. I think the short term trend has turned upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is underway.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs is underway.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

breakout


Here is a five point box, one box reversal, point and figure chart showing e-mini trading going back to the late August low. I had been expecting a continuation of the drop from the 1224 high in early November down to a prospective 1152 low. But the market's action today has changed my mind. The rally to 1207 so far looks like a genuine breakout from an extensive base that was built after the drop to the 1171 low made on November 16.

My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and the cash S&P kissed its rising 50 day moving average yesterday. Moreover, the market has traded sideways for two weeks in the face of a torrent of bad news from Europe. These facts provide a bullish context which tells me to take the move above the 1200 level as a definite bullish indication.

A count across this base projects a target of 1275.

Guesstimates on December 1

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1187-1201. I think this down leg will carry to 1152 or so. But a daily close above the 1201 level would be very bullish and make me abandon my down-to-1152 scenario. In any case, once the drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

down to 1150 - then up

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 for 2010. The market made a bull market high near 1227 in early November and since then has been moving lower. I see this drop as a correction within a bull market trend.

The 200 day moving average (red line) continues to move higher and stands below the market at 1133. This is good evidence that the bull market remains intact. The S&P is currently hovering at its 50 day moving average (blue line). Buying opportunities in a bull market generally arise when the market drops a couple of percentage points below its 50 day moving average but remains above its 200 day moving average. I think just such an opportunity lies dead ahead.

If the second leg down within this correction equals the length of the first it will end near 1150 (blue rectangles. This is also the current location of the lower channel line in the green dotted trend channel I have drawn. The purple, rising trend channel has its lower boundary at 1140 currently.

There is even more support in the 1125-1150 zone than this. The midpoint of the advance from the late August low is at 1135. A drop from the November top which equals the length of the last big reaction in August of 2009 would carry the market down to 1135 also. And the breakout level from the May-August 2009 head and shoulders bottom formation is at 1127 (green dash line).

So I think there is very good reason for expecting this reaction to end in the 1130-50 zone, probably closer to the top of this zone than to its lower edge.

Once this drop is complete I think the S&P will be headed for 1300.

Guesstimates on November 30, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1160-80. I think this down leg will carry to 1152 or so. Once the drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Guesstimates on November 29, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1166-82. I think this down leg will carry to 1152 or so. Once the drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro broke below 133 support but I think it will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Guesstimates on November 26, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1180-1191. I am still expecting another down leg which will carry into the 1130-1150 zone. Once that drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro should find support at 133.00 and the move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.