LEADERS:
GOOG: Support at 465. Next upside target is 495.
IBM: Next upside target is 110.
GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.
CME: Headed down to 495 then up to 630.
MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: Support is at 115. Upside target is 150.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Support is at 92. Next upside target is 108.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Headed down to 116 then up to 150.
NYX: Headed down to 77 then up to 115.
NMX: Headed down to 115.
PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.
SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 67.
EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.
WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Dow Domed House
Here are two daily charts of the Dow industrials. The first one shows the market's current position in what I think is a developing George Lindsay Domed House formation. The second one shows the market's postion in what I think is a minor example of a Domed House formation. I last commented on this subject here. For the past several months I have been guessing that the top of the domed house, point 23 in the first chart, would occur on May 17. But in the meantime the 20 day moving average of the daily count of advancing issues on the New York Stock Exchange has given a contrary indication.
It suggests that a top is not likely until mid-June at the earliest and possibly not until mid-August.
In my last post I suggested that the Spiders would probably reach 156.70 and the S&P cash index 1567 before the upmove from the March 14 low is complete. I think the market will need more that three weeks to reach this target.
All in all I now believe that the current advance will carry past the projected top date of May 17. My best guess now is that point 23 in both formations will develop in mid-July near the Dow 13700 level.
The standard price projection for the drop after the point 23 top calls for a low near Dow 10700 late this year or early next.
The Next Top
Here is a weekly chart of the Spiders. (Multiply by 10 to get the cash S&P.)
The art of forecasting amounts to choosing an appropriate precedent for the current market condition. In the case of the Spiders I think the March 14 low at 136.75 was a low comparable in importance to the lows of August 2004, April 2005, October 2005, and June 2006.
On the chart above I have marked the percentage increase in the Spiders after each of these lows. I think it is reasonable to expect the advance from the March 14 low to be comparable to the advances from the preceeding four lows in the bull market. On this basis one can project targets at levels ranging from 150 to 163. Throwing out the lowest and the highest of these targets and averaging the remaining two gives an ideal target of 156.72. This is just a shade over the 2000 bull market top at 155.70.
Guesstimates on April 30, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 148.20 and in the S&P’s is at 1490. Next upside targets are151.00 in the Spiders and 1517 in the S&P’s.
QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is at 46.70 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.
June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. Th market is headed for the 105-16 level.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.
SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.
Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.
QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is at 46.70 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.
June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. Th market is headed for the 105-16 level.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.
SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.
Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
I'mmm Ba-a-ack
Thanks to all of you who offered encouragement and best wishes for a speedy recovery. My hip is doing better than expected for 10 days after surgery.
Next post will be Monday's guesstimate.
Next post will be Monday's guesstimate.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Into the Shop for Repairs
Tomorrow I shall have a new hip installed. This is going to keep me away from my office until Monday, April 30. With some luck I might be back a few days earlier than that.
Looking forward to seeing you all then.
Looking forward to seeing you all then.
Guesstimates on April 17, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 145.30 and in the S&P’s is at 1462. Next upside targets are148.70 in the Spiders and 1495 in the S&P’s.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Advancing Issues
Here is a line chart showing the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The solid blue line is the 20 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.
Today the 20 day moving average has moved to the highest level it has seen in more than a year. In particular it is higher than at any time since the June 14 low in 2006. Based on my observations this means that the market averages will trend higher for a least two more months and perhaps for as many as four more months. In other words, a bull market top is not likely until mid-June at the earliest.
This conflicts with the Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House projection for a top in mid-May, a projection which was supported by an analysis of Lindsay's basic advances and declines.
Right now I am inclined to go with the indications of the advancing issues indicator and this leads me to expect that the top of the domed house will be delayed at least until mid-June, or that point 27 will be the top of the bull market, not point 23.
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
This morning the Spiders reached a new high for the bull market which began from the 2002 low. The futures are not far behind, so far having fallen shy of a new bull market high by 0.50 points.
The futures and the Spiders have each reached what I think will be short term resistance. A reaction in the futures down to 1462 and in the Spiders down to 145.30 would be normal at this juncture.
The Q's have yet to reach 45.70 resistance but I think they will hold support at 44.40 on any reaction from current levels.
I still think this bull market has further to go. The futures should trade around 1520, the Spiders around 152 and the Q's near 50 before any substantial drop begins.
Nasdaq Composite
Here is a weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite index. I last commented on this chart here.
I think this average is headed for the 2650-2750 zone, about midway between the resistance lines defined by 1/2 of the all time high and 2 and 5/8 of the 2002 low.
Right now I think it is likely that when that zone is reached we shall see a reaction bigger than any visible on the chart above.
Guesstimates on April 16, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for 146.50 and the S&P’s to 1475. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Friday, April 13, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
Yesterday's low point occurred a bit above the levels I was anticipating in that morning's guesstimate. In any case the rally to 1475 in the S&P's, t0 146.50 in the Spiders, and to 45.70 in the Q's is underway.
I think we shall see the S&P's and Spiders trade up to 1520 or so during the next couple of months. I am looking for the Q's to make it to the 50 level during the same time.
Guesstimates on April 13, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders have started a rally which should carry them to 146.50. The S&P’s should reach the 1475 level at the same time. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has moved above resistance at 134.70 and the next stopping point is the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has moved above resistance at 134.70 and the next stopping point is the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Guesstimates on April 12, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The market continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lows over the past few days so I now think the Spiders will drop to 143.00 before the move up to 146.50 starts. For the same reason I think the futures will drop a bit further to 1439 before starting to move up to 1475. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The Q’s should find support near 43.80 and then move up to resistance at 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The Q’s should find support near 43.80 and then move up to resistance at 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly chart of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
The reaction started from lower levels than I anticipated and consequently has carried these markets a little lower than I expected. However I think it is just about over and that a move to new rally highs is imminent.
Guesstimates on April 11, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. Support is 144.00. The futures are headed for 1462. Support is 1450. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Tale of the Tape
LEADERS:
GOOG: Support at 460. Next upside target is 500.
IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.
GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.
CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.
MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.
NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.
NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.
PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.
SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.
EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.
WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.
GOOG: Support at 460. Next upside target is 500.
IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.
GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.
CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.
MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.
NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.
NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.
PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.
SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.
EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.
WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.
Guesstimates on April 10, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1462. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.
GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.
SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Monday, April 09, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
The move up from the March 14 low still has quite a bit further to go in my opinion. I expect to see the futures trade in the 1520-30 zone, the Spiders in the 151-152 zone and the Q's in the 50-51 zone sometime during the next two or three months.
Meantime I see very temporary resistance in the S&P's at 1462, in the Spiders at 145.20, and in the Q's at 45.00. After a brief reaction I think all three markets will then proceed to new highs for the rally as indicated.
Guesstimates on April 9, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and June gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and June gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Guesstimates on April 5, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Domed House Update
Above this post you will see two daily bar charts of the Dow Industrial average. I have labeled the first chart to show what I think are the turning points in the current domed house portion of George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. I last commented on this here. I have labeled the second chart to show the turning points of a minor Three Peaks and a Domed house formation which I think began last November. I last commented on this minor formation here.
I think we have seen points 10 and 14 in the minor formation (blue numbering on second chart above). The prognosis is for a move to new bull market highs. I think blue point 23 will develop near Dow 13300.
In the major formation (first chart, red numbering) point 22 occurred on March 14 and the market is now in its rally to point 23. This will coincide with blue point 23 near the Dow 13300 level.
In a previous post I suggested that May 17 is a likely date for a top based on calculations using Lindsay's theory of basic advances and declines. This is still my best guess for the timing of point 23.
Guesstimates on April 4, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.
QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Tale of the Tape
Today I am introducing a new feature for this blog. It is a list of my shorter term views on a number of stocks I follow. I expect to update these views a couple of times a week or as necessary in reponse to developments.
LEADERS:
GOOG: Support at 450. Next upside target is 500.
IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.
GS: Support at 190. Next upside target is 235.
CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.
MO: Support is at 55. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.
NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.
NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.
PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.
SHLD: Support is at 165. Upside target is 210.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.
EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.
WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.
LEADERS:
GOOG: Support at 450. Next upside target is 500.
IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.
GS: Support at 190. Next upside target is 235.
CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.
MO: Support is at 55. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.
NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.
NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.
PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.
SHLD: Support is at 165. Upside target is 210.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.
EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.
WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on this market here.You can see that today's first hour was a wide range up bar and a breakout from the recent 4 day trading range. I think that the futures are now headed for 1465, the Spiders for 145.20 and the Q's to 45.00. This in turn is only part of a more extensive rally which I think will carry the futures up above 1500 and the Spiders above 150. The Q's should reach 50 or higher.
Monday, April 02, 2007
Guesstimates on April 2, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 140.50 and in the futures it is at 1415. The next significant move will be upward to new bull market highs.
QQQQ: I am looking for a move up to 46.50.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support yesterday and I now think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.
QQQQ: I am looking for a move up to 46.50.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support yesterday and I now think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 675.
May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.
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