Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. The market has tried to rally several times from support near 1510 in the S&P's over the past two days, but each attempt was met by renewed selling. I now believe that we shall see new reaction lows in the S&P's around the 1490 level and in the Spiders near 147.50. The Q's should drop to 46.60 or so. Once those levels are reached I think the big rally I have been expecting will get underway.
15 comments:
Thats why you are a lousy Trader... from 1520 to 1510 to 1490. You are still my best contrary ST indicator.
We love you
This blog is beautifully written and an interesting read, and updated at least once or twice a day, and the writer has fantastic credentials, unfortunatley my observation is that the predictions are little better than flipping a coin... hell even if I made predictions every 4 market hours I'd be right some time
Carl,
Just wanted to express my appreciation
to you for sharing your thoughts and insights. Look forward to reading your blog everyday.
Thanks,
Darrell
Unfortunately markets quite often tend to be random so predictions don't work out all that often. The best we can do is find a system that gives you an edge. Trading predictions...not so good of an edge.
Carl, you are the best. You are one of the very few people I pay attention to.
hey Mr Smart ASS: unless you're keeping a log and tracking the accuracy of carl's predictions, you should keep your mouth shut to avoid swallowing both your feet... do you think you have some sort of monopoly on understanding trading probability and capital risk management?... there's nothing wrong with a few sober comments to keep people's feet on the ground, as I posted some time ago if these predictions were any good the author would be a billionaire by now, since he ain't you need to ask why
Just keep adjusting your numbers you'll get it right sometime. Are you working with the PPT?
to marketmakerx
CarlFutias predictions have served us well over the years as a reliable ST contrary indicator with over 65% accuracy. Why ?
Because his method is random and undisciplined at best and that is what we are looking for in ST trading set-ups. His personal problem is that he fails quite regularly to recognize when he is wrong and when it should be prudent to change ones price levels but that has to do with the fact that he is not a trader and does not have the proper instinct to adapt quickly. Of course in the end he might be right that the SP goes to 1570 but that is irrelevant if you have an adverse move first of 40-50 points.
to anonymous :
the key or emphasis lies on proper risk management, which Futia is totally lagging in his predictions.
Basically in the end it doesn´t matter how he arrived at his proj. target even if it means to be dead wrong first. Like anything else you need an edge to make money LT , Futias approach is random at best with a 50/50 chance of being wright and I would strongly disagree with statements that he is anything more than just another Blogger.
Yep Gary. And your system is surely the best one. Only because you and that idiot above don't understand how one can trade predictions doesn't mean noone can. Can you all just take into consideration that there are things in this world that others do better than you? There are many methodologies used in the market. And almost in any of them there is at least one person who uses it profitably. I really believe that you Gary found a good system for you. That's great. But why are you keep comming here and try to force people into your system? Just read every post on this blog before you make statements. I did so, I also have read every comment and in one of these Carl writes about his risk management. I'm sure his drawdown is much less than yours.
To all people who understand what is going on on the blog. Just let those frustrated market masters write few comments. I'm sure Carl doesn't answer those comments becasue he does not care about one or two idiots. I'm sure you come here to read this blog because you don't like it. Yeaaahhh. And one explanation you give is "because it is a contrarian indicator". You idiots should have at least respect for a man who is longer in the markets than you in this world. But maybe this is a problem, you have to grow up. Grown man doesn't pay attention to things he doesn't believe or doesn't like. I said it before, that no idiot after his comment here, did come back here and said "I was wrong". You are just very frustrated, pathetic kids who try to make some noise. Carl has a good time reading your posts. Because he doesn't edit your comments it means one thing: He does not care about you idiots.
it would be sad and pathetic if anybody would care about responses to this blog anyway.....
I think it is safe to say that there are more important issues in ones life. But the fact remains Futias predictions are great ST contrary indicators thats why we love him.
great blog if you do not trade, I like to read something about the Big Picture from a LT cyclical point of view but please do not use his predictions to trade on a daily basis / you are guaranteed to loose your shirt.
of course after being wrong now 3 times in a row I think it is safe to say that we are due for a bounce to 1520 or so.
I think its important to note that Carl has said in the past that for his own trading he uses a much shorter time frame.
Also what I think is unique about Carl is that he doesn't make excuses when his predictions are wrong, he adjusts them to what he thinks is the new likely scenerio.
Sometimes he is spot-on, sometimes the market throws a curveball.
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