Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Still long the e-minis from 1463 and still using a 1438 stop. If the market hits 1485 today I shall sell my long position. I think that Tuesday’s low at 1437 in the e-minis will hold and that the market is headed for 1600 by year end.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.
TLT - December Bonds: The bonds now have resistance at 115-20 but I still think that the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.
December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 112-16 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.
Euro-US Dollar: The market will probably rally to 148.50 but I think that will be it for the euro. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.
Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.
XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I think crude has begun a substantial drop. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.
GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level which is the front month high reached in 1980. Support is at 790.
SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level. Support is at 1435.
Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 626.
14 comments:
Your wide stop of 25 points is bigger than your current "profit" target @ 1485 (if you bought @ 1463)... I think this is a very UNprofitable (and amateurish) way of trading in the long run. You should have your profit target be placed at least @ 1513 (i.e. 2*25=50 points away), which would make your ratio of risk/reward viable, going forward. Otherwise, you are never going to make any real money.
1600 by year end! That would be 10% in 6 weeks. Extremely unlikely.
We are going to get a bounce but there is no way that we will get to 1600 given the hits to the banks,retailers, and semis. They are not going to bounce that much since the business itself is not that good.
I prefer your Sep view of the Domed House, but w/ the peak in October. We had a compact formation May-July though the timing is a few days short using 105 days, its still close enough.
I believe the rise will be the first bounce on the downhill portion of the domed house , it will not get to the old highs, and then we leg downward as the economic slowdown starts to bite.
As an extension to the earlier post, if you look at the dow transports, you'll see a compact formation from April to end of May, it peaks at the end of May sells off than spikes into the middle of July. It then has dropped about 25%.
It fits the pattern of a compact formation before the peak, but the peak to peak is only about 45 days. There is no question that the top happened in July.
So I like the general outline of the compact formation, selloff, and then peak, but I think the very tight timing given by G.L. is too precise for stock market work. Clearly, the dow transports show that the timing can be substantially different. I'm for the Oct. top after the congestion this spring/summer.
I like as well the Domed house, this is not a "sub prime idea"
The dome house is of appeal and does not look like a "sub prime idea"
Carl,
Wondering why you would place your stop at 1438 when you think 1437 will hold. I would think you would place your stop below support rather than above.
Carl, you don't even believe "1600 by year end" or at least you don't trade like it or you wouldn't be bugging out of your long @ 1485.
All during the July/Aug decline you kept trying to get long; seldom selling short a fabulous decline; day after day repeatedly citing a new AND LOWER support level after the day's before was broken.
During the current decline you have repeated that M.O. cancelling buy after buy and furthermore cancelling the one attempt to sell short.
So 1463 ? "Sold to you." "Done." Finally, a trade that you didn't cancel and finally you have some skin in the game and get a chance to walk the walk.
Why sell, at 1485 ? If entered at 1463, then 20 points gained. Move stop loss to the opening level and let it ride to the highs
10% in 6 weeks isn't extremely unlikely if Carl has the pattern right. The last leg up would be rapid. That's the whole point.
Not even close to a true statement. It is all about probabilities. Plenty of highly successful traders operate at a reward/risk of under 1:1. If win percentage is somewhat high they come out way ahead in long run. No different than the opposite - trend followers - who have low % winners but high reward/risk. Both approaches can be highly profitable.
"Your wide stop of 25 points is bigger than your current "profit" target @ 1485 (if you bought @ 1463)... I think this is a very UNprofitable (and amateurish) way of trading in the long run. You should have your profit target be placed at least @ 1513 (i.e. 2*25=50 points away), which would make your ratio of risk/reward viable, going forward. Otherwise, you are never going to make any real money."
Has it ever occured to you that maybe Carl is not 100% invested. And maybe long few as a % capital? There is nothing wrong to be long say 10-20% and have wide stop and add more once your thesis confirmed.
Any rally next week into Thanksgiving should be sold IMHO. Lower lows are coming by next FED meeting possibly. That will give Bernanke an opportunity to be santa clause.
ho-ho-ho
The year end rally is coming. Just not yet. 1600? I highly doubt it.
1437 is toast, possibly by early next week. August lows may be safe but not sure. If u can get breakeven, better take it. What are u doing trying to catch bottoms?
1600...mmmmm....that will be sweeeeeet.....
Carl, would it be possible to include oil and gas in your forecast as well. Thanks.
BC
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