Here is an image of today's front page of The New York Times.
It is very unusual for the stock market or any other market to achieve headline status in a major metropolitan newspaper, especially the NYT. This headline hits the trifecta. It says that the stock market is sinking as is the US dollar. It attributes this in part to the fact that oil prices are at record highs (unadjusted for inflation) and that the housing market is in trouble (I guess that's four, not just three markets covered in one headline!)
I think this means that the stock market is at a low as is the dollar. Moreover, it suggests that oil prices are near the end of their run up and that the housing market as well and the financial sector has seen the worst.
7 comments:
How about the Times in 1929? The housing headlines over the last two years? The mortgage meltdown headlines? The "tech is back" headline on the ocver of Barrons this past week. The Cisco cover on Barrons in 2000. There are headlines on both sides of the isle and it is bias to use them when they are supportive of your position. And, you are definitely biased just as everyone else is. That includes me. Cheers
Headlines aren't always precise timing tools and are really only important when they contradict the technical picture of the market.
Besides contrary opinion, where is the technical evidence suggesting the dollar is at a low?
I think this market isn't going anywhere significantly until afetr Christmas as my cyclical work suggests . I do expect a ST rally starting anyday now but turning over into the week beginning the 19th, another rally and then into final lows beginning the week of Dec 10 to the week beginning Dec 17th. IMHO. But we shall see and I look forward one swing at a time.
Great work Carl
actualy the US is looking for a cheaper paper to print the dollar as the dollar become so cheap, only toilet paper is cheaper!
carl
nice to see such a simple example
get such extreme responces .
my own thinking is the stock market is in a similar time period relating to 1966 . weather this is the low now or we go sideways or lower into next yr i expect 2008 to be an up year . if we happen to go up from here into the end of the year then id expect more complex moves into mid 2008 .
either way i expect the over all stock mkt to hold up if not go higher into june 2010 .
this time frame is where everyone
( many anyways ) are saying the stock mkt will be at its depression lows . and yet there is no valid historical reason why 2010 should be a low that i see .
I think the last time I saw you refer to the negative articles in the NYT was to show that the market hadn't reached its peak back a few months ago. At the time, I commented that using newspapers as signal no longer works because as long as Bush is president, they will not reports good economic news any more than they will report good news in Iraq. That remains the case today.
Can't cut and paste into the comment box, but google Mervyn King Gov of the Bank of England, share warning and Daily Telegraph and you will see an interesting story in the UK news.
Huw
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