Thursday, March 20, 2008

guesstimates on March 20, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis couldn’t hold support at 1306 yesterday. On the other hand, they are trading near that level as I write this. I am still going to look for signs of a higher low and a close today above the 1300 level will make this week an outside week with a higher close. This would be a bullish development in view of the extremely bearish nature of all the news and commentary I am hearing and reading. In any case I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 1430-50 range.

QQQ: The Q’s have support at 41.70. A rally to 47.50 should begin soon.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and from there I think the bonds will head down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro will make it into the 162-63 range but a close today below 155.00 will turn the trend lower for the time being.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun.

GLD - April Gold: Yesterday’s big drop is likely to turn the week into an outside week and this means the market should now be headed for the 750-80 range.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is now headed for 16.20 or so.

Google: Google has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I’m also looking at the outside week we now have. Since the markets are closed for us tomorrow, my model tells me that a close above 1315.50 today will indicate a buy signal for Monday; the more above 1315.50 the better, and a close above 1315.50 on Monday will give me a confirmed buy signal, indicating that the recent lows we have seen will not be violated and that the long awaited rally is finally under way. I’m still holding my original long position from 1278.00 since Monday.

Good trading and have a great weekend.

Thank you.

PM

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I’m now long my second position at 1315.00 in the March SP’s. A close today above 1315.50 will give me a buy signal for Monday, since we’re closed tomorrow.

Thank you.

PM

Anonymous said...

Anyone give consideration to this?

We overall continue up into early maybe mid April, then turn down for new lows mid year?

Cal