Monday, June 30, 2008

The Worst Is Yet To Come !!!





At least that is what I have surmised from reading headlines and looking at cover stories over the past few days.

The media are starting to throw a scare into me, and that is hard to do. So I think that the level of public pessimism is very high, so high as to preclude any substantial drop in the averages from current levels. In fact, I think the next big move from here will be upward to 1500 in the S&P and 13300 in the Dow.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl,
put your money where your mouth is .

cheers
Susn

Anonymous said...

Carl,

Since the last time you have made this argument (if I remember right) S&P is lower and crude is higher.I don't feel like such covers can be traded.There were and are tonnes of them about crude since 100 was broken. Best.

Anonymous said...

Betting my house on your advice. Seriously.

Anonymous said...

Senor Carl,

I think in English it is said, "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." In other words, the shocking headlines are admittedly interesting intersections of mass hysteria with potentially profitable trading opportunities by recognizing the contrarian variable. Nevertheless, sometimes the shocking headlines are signals that, yes, there is an essential reality embedded therein, and may not be perceived to be contrarian. I would be interested to hear if you might have come across such a situation in your career. Many thanks for your blog, Jorge Rovira from the Canary Islands

Anonymous said...

Susn ... you do the same! Also, could you pls direct us to YOUR blog? I would love to read what intelligent things you have to say.

Rick B.

Anonymous said...

Well, today's rally sure is impressive.....NOT. I continue to believe we are already in the descent of the domed house and are headed into the 10's on the DOW. Mr. Carl any thoughts?? Thanks again for all your informative info and thoughts, kind regards, Janet. Have a Happy 4th!!

Anonymous said...

Well you think people could be nicer in their criticism.

I do wonder though If we ever do get a prolonged decline, then we would have to expect various news articles written about the event.

While a bounce here would not surprise me, I think the Case Shiller housing data, country wide and bear sterns collapses are true indicators of a real problem.

With all do respect I think the magazine covers, etc. work most of the time but not all of the time as nothing works all of the time.

I do like your blog though even when I disagree with you.

adam said...

Carl,

It will be good if you make your guestimates predicated on some conditions which are made known ahead of time, so readers dont get whipshawed by your change in views. As an example you have been saying S&P is headed to 1500, but it will be nice to know under what conditions you feel that climb is possible. Now that you are calling for oil to go up to 160ish, is your prediction on S&P still valid? If past is any guidance, the economy is strained with high oil prices. How then can earnings outlook be optimistic to push S&P to 1500?

Please clarify.

Anonymous said...

no, is not going to 1500... if it is, it will be from lower level... look, you are just picking the bad headline.. Every dude in CNBC keep saying this fall will pass, it will be better in the longer run.. sh**, keep saying that, we will keep on falling... What they need is to get over denial and say "what's wrong with our system?" "let's try to fixe it" or say "I don't know how far is this fall going to go..." or "American stock market is over, no more bull market for a long time..." Something like that would be a bottom. Keep on saying "it will be better tomorrow" is not a bottom... There's still "hope"... Bottom will form when everyone is in "hopeless" thinking...

Anonymous said...

Lots of Monday morning quarterbacks on this comment thread. Carl is doing a great job imo.

Anonymous said...

obviously, i cannot see all the reasoning behind Carl's bold statements. However i do support his view from a technical point of view. Market always seeks balance after all by discounting future events and when things get overextended on either sides it usually seeks the center of gravity again and this usually produce a reaction in the opposite direction. I think we are currently under such scenario (shortterm speaking). Good trading all !

Jack said...

(IMO) Market is oversold and due for a short term bounce. But longer term trend is still down.

jack