Friday, August 29, 2008
E-minis
I just sold my 200% long position at 1286 a few minutes ago. The market has dropped below 1286 as I write this on relatively high volume after trading sideways above that level for about an hour. I don't like this action because it makes yesterday look like a false breakout above the previous high at 1294 made on August 22. I'll take another look at things early Tuesday, but I am beginning to suspect that the move to 1250 I had been expecting a few days ago has begun. However, for the moment I have no position and no firm conviction about likely direction for the next few days.
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9 comments:
thanks for the update.
enjoy your weekend.
Solrac
Carl,
Let me just say how much I appreciate your blog. Even when I disagree with your analysis, it's a pleasure to watch a trader who: sticks to his trading rules, gets out of a trade when his stops are violated, and doesn't get married to a theory. Good work--and thanks.
Jeff
Carl,
Thank you for posting your trade. Here are some observations.
1. TRIN on the Q's is unusually high. 5 DMA is higher than the March and June highs, and almost at the January levels.
2. With all the huge hurricane scare (I saw the news last night) I thought Oil would go up $5 today. But no big money is going into USO. Volume so far is surprisingly low.
3. The Qs and the SPDRs are close to the top of WSJs Buying on Weakness list.
4. The Q's got a nice bounce close to my critical support levels (Apple 170; Goog 460).
I hope you have a relaxing weekend!
Oh - finally, the Qs are also at your support level of 46.
Hi Carl,
A close below 1285.10 in the September contract on Tuesday will be a confirmed sell signal for my timing model.
Have a great weekend.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
On Guesstimates of August 29th, you said, "I think this up swing will reach 1340. Support today is at 1286. I still think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500." and today on E-mini you are saying, "I'll take another look at things early Tuesday, but I am beginning to suspect that the move to 1250 I had been expecting a few days ago has begun." Flip-flops these too early or you are now actually Bearish on S&P?
carl
ill note that so far the move up from aug 19 to sept 2 has a few concerns yet so far the cycles were accurate as the mkt went up
i do think that the next cycle from sept 2 to sept 16th 19th
should be bearish .
the qqqq broke 46 today slightly ill admit but it will begin to question your 46 support if the spx is going to go to 1250 .
the 10 day trin should go up above 1.40 as the spx tests 1234 and can even break it slightly . the best time frame for this would be sept 16th 19th . then ill adopt a more agreesive bullish position
for now still short qqqq and long dow and have other bullish positions working that are doing fine .
lastly im sure you remember the comodites mkt prior to the 1999-2000 lows . this mkt feels much the same latley . heavy
good luck
joe
There has been some seriously nightmarish data out of the UK in the last few days. (Look at eur gbp and gbp jpy).
Housing is showing down -10.5% annually but anyone who needs to sell knows the bids are actually around -30%. I am expecting some incredibly bad data to come througn in the next 3- 6months as the transactions going through now feed into the data. This is the av lag time on Uk property transactions.
Catherine
PM, is your "model" getting whipsawed all over the place?!
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