Wednesday, November 05, 2008
60-80 point break underway
In this morning's guesstimate I said that support in the S&P stood at 975. However the market has since put in a lower top near the 1000 level and this makes me suspect that the entire move upward from 825 to 1008 in the e-minis is being corrected. I think the market will establish a higher low in the 930-40 zone during the next day or two and then resume its rally to 1080.
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9 comments:
Thanks, Carl. I agree with this guesstimate. I have been short NQ since 1380 and plan to cover around SPX 940. We need this sell off for an advance to 1080. Advancing issues were reaching overbought levels not seen for a long time.
Actually, Carl, I covered at around SP 958 (NQ 1307), anticipating a short covering bounce. As it turns out, I could have held tight - the bounce came but was washed away - but I'm still learning how to trade futures.
On Nov 4th, the rally off the lows reached the same overbought extremes seen immediately following the lows of 1982 and 2002. A mild correction is normal at this time if the market has really turned bullish!
Hello Mr.F
I view this downturn as a continuation of the ongoing bear leg down, and we should establish lower low accompanying a sizable panic. People might call it a mini "C".
( I am trying hard not to put in any rear view mirror statement, as I am aware you hate those...)
what if it goes past 800? contingency forecast?
Nothing in the charts or fundamentals looks like a buy except on a super-short term basis unless you believe in a V-shaped economic recovery. If you believe in that I won't bother arguing with you.
For the rest of us, there may be a short-term pop tomorrow as guys like us & quants try to bounce the SPY off its 20-day SMA. If the initial jobless claims stinks though, I think the bottom could really fall out here.
Please please please someone give me a real reason to be bullish. I'm sick of making myself depressed but I'm a realist and that is getting in the way of bullishness.
Hi Carl,
Yesterday, my buy signal issued this past Tuesday with a close above 996.80 was nullified with a close below 883.10, this close confirmed a new sell signal. I don't usually take a 15 point hit on my signals, but these are unusual times.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
I dont think it's prudent to be bullish in a bear market.
The market may bounce now but I'm looking for the 1020-1030 area, not much higher. After that I'm hoping to see a move to around 660 on S&P, which I will short. I would be happy to go long with the house at those levels.
Bottom is near, I reckon...
Just a lot of fast whipsaws are wearing out a lot of people.
However these characteristics are precisely what happens at the bottom making....I think...
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