So I think we shall see a drop below the overnight low at 825 in the futures which was made on October 27. But I don't think the S&P's will spend more than a couple of hours trading below 825 before a big rally starts. My best guess is that this shakeout low will occur in the 800-10 range.
In the meantime, any rally to 885 would be very bullish and make me abandon my "down to 805" scenario.
6 comments:
Hi Carl,
Great minds think alike. But, of course, that leaves the two of us out.
Anyhow, to let you know I dumped my three experimental longs at 849.00 and will see how it performs. Clearly, my confirmed near term sell signal of two days ago has been working like a charm.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Why do you think a print at 805 will spark a rally?
Carl,
It appears to me -- from the trades you have posted, and I apologize in advance if I am wrong -- that you rarely short, even if your analysis tells you that we are headed lower. What this suggests to me is that you have an inherent bias -- to go long, and that affects your trading. If I am correct, then as a person predisposed to going long, you would constantly look for bottoms to buy, not tops to sell. This bias would be perfect in a bull market, but it would seriously affect your trading in a bear market, where the optimal strategy is *not* to look for bottoms, but for tops.
It thus appears to me that if you were to apply your excellent box theory in reverse in bear markets -- look for tops to short -- you would do much better.
Hi Carl,
A close today below 821.00 would give me another confirmed sell signal. The previous sell signal issued earlier this week with a close below 895.10 has worked very well.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Carl,
Looking at your 63% gains is hard to believe you made that... I have not seen anyone call this market correct... I know in the end it's profit n loss, but if you would have just switched hats and short every rally your 63% gain would have prolly doubled!
I would think if i made63% gain, i would be calling the market a little better... I don't get why u are so bullish on the market, when the sky is falling and we are going into a GREATER DEPRESSION!
From what I read, we are not going into a recession... we will be going into one of the GREATEST DEPRESSIONS of all time!
ex
Hi Carl,
I reinstated my three longs at 943.00, this entry is a few minutes late, but there's lots to do in a fast market.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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