Thursday, September 01, 2011

Guesstimates on September 1, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1205-1225. The ES has traded well into the 1220-40 target zone and is in the process of building a top. The next big move from current levels will be down to 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower. Meantime I will stick with my 1.53 upside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is in the 1820-1840 zone.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

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