Monday, December 12, 2011

Guesstimates on December 12, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1234-1252. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


Afshaikh said...

Gold was below your 1675 before you posted this morning.

Do you have a revised downside target for gold ??

Ted said...


You raise a good point that 'what has not happened' in the market--a huge drop--says a lot. But also, I wanted to remind you of earlier long-term ideas that you discussed in your blog: That the 2008 drop would be followed by approximately a 2 year rally. Also, that the rally would take the shape of a 3PDH pattern (there is evidence that this could still be intact). Additionally, that there would be a long-term bear market low in early 2012. I realize that the market has been resisting going lower for some months, but I was wondering if you would comment on your current view of the market headed higher in context of these past predictions that you have made, that have yet to be proven incorrect. Thank you very much.