Thursday, February 09, 2012

close to strong resistance

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past 4 months trading in the March '12 e-mini futures.

The market is getting close to a very important resistance level (purple oval). The May 2011 top was at 1373.50. A rally from the November 25 low which matches the size of the first leg up from the October 4 low would stop at 1363-68 depending on which contract you use for the low price on November 25. The market has rallied for nearly two months and is also getting close to the upper channel line for the narrower bullish trend channel i have drawn (green dash line).

I think this is a bull market, but even bull markets have reactions. I think a drop comparable in size to the early December 2011 drop of 70 points or so will start once the market enters this resistance zone.

I still see no sign of a potential top for the Lindsay domed house which I discussed in this post. When it develops it should look like a possibly misshapen head and shoulders formation. The reaction which I think is coming may well define the left shoulder, point 21, of the domed house.

3 comments:

cn said...

thanks for the update

Michael said...

With all due respect, Ed Carlson at Seattle Technical Advisors who is a student of George Lyndsay's work says that the highs of 2/18/11, 5/2/11, and 7/7/11 are not part of any kind of "3 Peaks and a Domed House" formation.

Those three "peaks" are highs in a Sideways Movement (text page 181). The longest Sideways Movement in the entire history of the Dow (always counted from the end of the Basic advance) was 11 months and a few days/weeks. That would put an end to the current Sideways Movment just about now.

Carl Futia said...

Michael:

He is of course entitled to his opinion.