Guesstimates on June 28, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1596-1609. It looks like the ES is going to drop for a couple of days but I think this drop will stop above 1553 and be followed by a rally to 1630 or so. Bearish sentiment is still not high enough to suggest that the drop from the May 22 top is over.

QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  

TNX (ten year note yield): The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50% and has been reached and exceeded. Next target is 2.85 % and I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has resumed its move up to 1.4000. Support at 1.3080 was broken yesterday but now the drop from 1.34 has matched the size of the drop which started in May. So I expect this support at 1.2950 to hold.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.

August Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

August Gold:  Gold has dropped a little below the 1200-50 target zone. There is short term support near 1160 and I think a rally of$200-300 is like to start soon.    

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached and exceeded. The 18.00 level is now support and I expect a rally to 24.00 or so to begin soon. Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

up to 1630-40 then down

Here is an hourly chart of the cash S&P 500 index.

Early this week the market dropped to 1560 where the drop from the May high matched the size of the September - November 2012 decline. I think the current rally will eventually carry the market up to the confluence of the rising blue trend line and the highest of the three blue declining trend lines (purple oval). This is the 1635-40 zone and is also about a .618 retracement of the drop from the May high.

I suspect that the rally to 1635-40 have two distinct upward phases of which the first is nearly over. This two phase sort of move is common in corrections against the direction of a bigger trend.

Once the rally to 1635-40 is over the second phase of the drop from the May 2013 top should develop. If it is as big as the initial drop from that high it will carry the index down to 1515 or so where it will meet the rising 200 day moving average. At that juncture I expect to see a lot more bearish sentiment than is now visible as well as obvious bullish divergences in my advancing issues oscillators.

I think the drop from last month's top is just another correction within an ongoing bull market. By the end of the year I think the S&P will have breached the 1700 level. My Lindsay calculations also suggest that a bull market top is due just about then too.

Guesstimates on June 27, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1595-1610. The ES has nearly reached the 1610 target. I think a drop to a low above this week’s 1553 low will develop and will be followed by another rally into the 1620-30 range. After that the drop to 1500 or so will resume. Right now bearish sentiment is not high enough to suggest that the drop from the May 22 top is over.

QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  

TNX (ten year note yield): The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50% and has been reached and exceeded. Next target is 2.85 % and I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has resumed its move up to 1.4000. Support at 1.3080 was broken yesterday but now the drop from 1.34 has matched the size of the drop which started in May. So I expect this support at 1.2950 to hold.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.

August Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

August Gold:  Gold has reached the 1200-50 downside target zone. I think a big rally will begin soon and carry the market back to 1500.   

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached. Resistance above the market is at 24.00.  

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

Guesstimates on June 26, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1581-98. The market has made a temporary low in the 1550-60 support zone. A rally to 1610 or so is likely and should then be followed by a move down to 1500. Right now bearish sentiment is not high enough to suggest that the drop from the May 22 top is over.

QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  

TNX (ten year note yield): The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50% and has been reached and exceeded. Next target is 2.85 % and I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has resumed its move up to 1.4000. Support is at 1.3080.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is holding support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.

August Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

August Gold:  Gold has reached the 1200-50 downside target zone. I think a big rally will begin soon and carry the market back to 1500.   

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached. Resistance above the market is at 24.00.  Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.