Friday, October 18, 2013

Guesstimates on October 18, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1718-1736. I think the market is on its way up into the 1775-1800 range. Only a drop below the 50 day moving average by two of my three trend indicators (Dow, S&P 500, and the advance-decline line) would turn me bearish.
QQQ:  The Q’s have been much stronger than the other averages. Support is at 75. Upside target is still 86.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
November Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.
December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.
Google:  Google has reached 977 so far on yesterday’s earnings news. Not only was 975 my target price but this move is a very obvious upside breakout from a well-defined trading range which has lasted 5 months. Most breakouts fail and I don’t think this one will be an exception to the rule. I now expect GOOG to drop at least to support in the 910-20 zone and more probably to the bottom of this last trading range which is near 850.
Apple:  AAPL has yet to move above its August top at 513 despite a move in the averages to new bull market highs. This is a sign of weakness which is being underlined by the modest bullish response AAPL is showing to Googles upside breakout. The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385.

1 comment:

Larry said...

Just in case you hadn't seen this week's cover of Barron's magazine:

This probably spells trouble for the bulls longer term.