Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Guesstimates on December 4, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1775-1790. The ES has broken below its recent 14 point trading range and this makes a drop to 1775 likely. Anything more than that would have very bearish implications.
QQQ:  Support is at 80. Upside target is now 88.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: As long as the Euro holds support at 1.3400 I will stick with my view that it is headed for 1.40-1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
January Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.
February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.
March Silver: The market is now headed for 13.00.
Google:  Upside target is now 1150 and support beneath the market stands at 970.
Apple:  Upside target is 565 but a close below 510 would mean that AAPL is headed back to 400 or lower.


Rob said...

For the record, yesterday we reached the highest long/short number I've seen in 13 years of watching these numbers, 21.04 times long money vs. short money. At the 2007 high, it was only 2.7. But, in 2007, the long number ran in the 300s for several weeks, then jumped over 500 for a single day, right at the final high. So I've been wondering since then if we would ever see a number over 500 on the long side. We hit 509 on Monday, 512 on Tuesday. And every other number I look at in various different funds were also off the charts on the positive side. I can't say this is it, but it sure could be.

JW said...

Newbie question to Rob:

Where do you get those numbers from?

I'm confused on what you mean.

Rob said...

Since my indicator may be moot, I'll tell you that my long-term indicator is watching the Rydex 2x QQQ funds daily volume numbers, positive versus negative, which is RYVYX vs. RYVNX. They're actually called Guggenheim now. But it always used to tell the story, volume would climb up a little over 2.0, we'd reach a high, fall back to around zero for the low. But I'm looking at the volume number of RYVYX got up to just over 500 (I assume it's 500 million) at the 2007 high, never came close to that again, until lately, where now the last three days were 509, 512, 521. So it's just a number I've watched for for a long time, wondering if we would reach it and whether it would be a top. I watch many fund volume numbers. The QQQs seem to tell the long-term story. And I am also wondering, whenever we do start down, if the long/short number will eventually get back down to zero or negative, meaning more money on the short side. That would not be pretty. Just watching and wondering though, not predicting.