Wednesday, February 12, 2014

all clear ?

Here are charts of my three trend indicators. I like to identify short term trend direction by observing on which side of the 50 day moving average (green line in each chart) at least two of the three indicators are found.

Yesterday the S&P moved above its 50 day moving average. As the NYSE advance-decline line is still above its own 50 day  moving average I conclude that the short term trend is up. Notice that at last week's low the Dow just kissed its 200 day moving average (red line) before turning upward. This is classic  "end of reaction" phenomenon in a bull market so I expect to see the Dow move above its 50 day moving average soon.

You Lindsay fans might want to note that if the 3 peaks and a domed house formation is still operating in the Dow then the current rally should end at point 27 in the schematic. This is usually below the top of the domed house (the December 31 high) but not always. So there is room for a new bull market high in the Dow even if a drop below the October 9, 2013 low still lies ahead as implied by the  3PDH.

The vigorous rally the market has put in since last week's low is very bullish and indicates a strong technical condition. For this reason too I expect both the Dow and the S&P to establish new bull market highs. If the S&P rallies from last week's low as much as it did on the initial leg up from the June 2013 low to the August 2013 high it will reach 1885 or so. Somewhat higher targets around 1930 or so are easy to project using the same method.

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