Tuesday, March 25, 2014

guesstimates on March 25, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the ES dropped 3 ticks below last week’s Fed low at 1842 but has since rallied to 1859. I think this is bullish action. Today’s range estimate is 1853-1867. I expect the ES to trade above 1900 over the next few weeks.
QQQ:  Upside target is 94.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro shows a downside breakout from the trading range it formed during the past week. I expect this reaction to end at a higher low near 1.36.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  Downside target is 92 but I think that may well be only the first stopping point in a bigger decline.
April Gold:  The current reaction is the biggest by far since the low near 1180. Gold has started to sag below support is at 1310. If it spends a full day trading below there the odd will then favor a continued down swing to 1180 and below. May Silver: Support is at 20.00 and weakness below there will mean that the rally is over.
Google:  The market averages have turned up so Google will probably hit the 1250 target soon.
Apple:  A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 494, would be very bearish. In the mean time I still think a rally to 600 or above is more likely than not.  

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