Friday, July 18, 2014

update

Here are daily bar charts (through July 16) of the five stocks I have been commenting on recently.

Before I do so again I want to say a few words about the market averages. Yesterday the Dow and the S&P took a tumble which was triggered by news of the Malaysian airliner shoot-down over the Ukraine. The previous day the Dow had made an all time high. Neither of these averages is close to its 50 day moving average (16,792 in the Dow and 1934 in the S&P). It would take a drop below these moving average by both the Dow and the S&P to turn me bearish. Then I would start looking for a move to the 200 day moving averages (16,219 in the Dow and 1842 in the S&P). So unless and until those 50 day moving averages are broken I will continue to expect new historical highs in both averages.

The top chart shows the newly split (7-1) stock of Apple. On a split adjusted basis the all time high in AAPL is 100.70. I think AAPL is headed for 108 or so.

The next chart shows the recent action of GOOGL. It's still a bull market in GOOGL and I expect a move up to 620-630.

The drop in Facebook ended exactly at its rising 200 day moving average. I am looking for new bull  market highs in FB with an upside target of 90.

I had been pretty bearish on TWTR, looking for a move below its IPO price to as low as 20. But the recent rally has taken FB well above its 50 day moving average which has started to turn upward. The subsequent reaction looks like it is holding at this moving average and if it does I'd say that TWTR is headed for 48-50.

The drop in Visa also ended at its rising 200 day moving average. I am looking for continuation upward to 250 or so. 

3 comments:

mike said...

Carl, thanks again for your comments ...I guess Lindsay is no match for QE .. it seems either your correct or Lindsay is correct but not both .. since the high in Lindsay should have occurred according to your last post on June 25th .. I guess we will see. thanks, Mike

janet said...

Thanks for the update, hope you have a nice weekend. Janet

Graph1159 said...

Hi Carl,
I remember you said that Lindsay warned of an 11+ month sideways movement followed by a rally being a crash omen. In 2011, the NDX traded sideways for 10 months (Feb. - Dec.). From an Elliott Wave Perspective, the NDX looks to be near the top of a bull market wave 3 started in late 2011, and EW rules would allow a maximum drop of 40% now!

What do you think about this?