Guesstimates on August 31, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1958-78. The odds are good that last week’s 1831 low ended the drop from the My-July tops. Support now is in the 1892-1911 range. From there an extended up swing is likely to begin.

QQQ:  I think that the drop from 114 ended at last Monday’s 84 low. Upside target is now 120.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.

October Crude:  Support is 35. Resistance above the market is at 46.

December Gold:  Resistance above the market is 1170.

September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.

Google:  In now think GOOG will hold support at 620 on any break and then resume its bull market.

Apple:  AAPL reached its 95 target and is now headed higher. Temporary resistance is at 112.

Facebook: Support is still at 80.

Twitter: TWTR is headed for 18.

Alibaba: The 55-60 target zone was reached and 75 is now resistance. I think the 50% drop in BABA will now be followed by a move up to 90 or so.

Visa: Support at 63 held and I think Visa is headed higher.

lots of pessimism

I think the drop from the US stock market high points of 2015 ended at the low points made early on August 24, this past Monday. A lot of bearish sentiment appears to have developed and this should be fuel for an extended rally if not for a move to new bull market highs.

The bottom three images show the front page of the New York times on August 22, 25 and 26. Seldom does one encounter a sequence of three bearish headline within such a short span of time. Headlines like these as well as the warnings offered by the talking heads on cable TV business shows all encourage "low information" investors to sell. This phenomenon typically appears close to important lows in the market averages. 

The top two charts offer information which highlights the bearish state of trader sentiment.

The chart at the top is from Mark Hulbert.  The red line on the chart shows the recommended market positions of Nasdaq trading advisors  in terms of the percentage net long or short which they suggest for their readers. Not only are they net short 50% as a group but this is the lowest (i.e biggest net short number) reading Hulbert has seen in 5 years. This is quite amazing given that the market averages have only dropped about 12-15 %. It shows very strong bearish sentiment and as such is a bullish portent for the market averages.

Right below Hulbert's chart is a chart showing the 5 day moving average of the put-call ratio for CBOE equity indices. It is at its highest level in more than three years. This too is strong support for a bullish prognosis for the averages.

Sentiment has turned from modestly bullish to very bearish in a very short time. This quick turn to bearishness is more characteristic of reactions in a bull market than of the start of a new bear market. At the very least the averages should head generally higher over the next several weeks. Any modest encouragement by the Fed in terms of delaying its projected interest rate increases will probably result in new bull market highs. 

Guesstimates on August 28, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1950-86. The odds are good that the drop ended at 1831. Support now is in the 1892-1911 range. From there an extended up swing is likely to begin.

QQQ:  I think there is a very good chance that the drop from 114 ended at Monday’s 84 low. Upside target is now 120.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.

October Crude:  Support is now 35.

December Gold:  Resistance above the market is 1170.

September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.

Google:  In now think GOOG will hold support at 620 on any break and then resume its bull market.

Apple:  AAPL reached its 95 target and is now headed higher. Temporary resistance is at 112.

Facebook: Support is still at 80.

Twitter: TWTR is headed for 18.

Alibaba: The 55-60 target zone was reached and 75 is now resistance. I think the 50% drop in BABA will now be followed by a move up to 90 or so.

Visa: Support at 63 held and I think Visa is headed higher.

Guesstimates on August 27, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1910-1970. The odds are good that the drop ended at 1831 but I do expect the market to drop down to 1850 or so at least once more before a substantial up swing begins.  

QQQ:  I think there is a very good chance that the drop from 114 ended at Monday’s 84 low.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.

October Crude:  Support is now 35.

December Gold:  Resistance above the market is 1170.

September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.

Google:  In now think GOOG will hold support at 620 on any break and then resume its bull market.

Apple:  AAPL reached its 95 target and is now headed higher. Temporary resistance is at 112.

Facebook: Support is still at 80.

Twitter: TWTR is headed for 18.

Alibaba: The 55-60 target zone was reached and 75 is now resistance. I think the 50% drop in BABA will now be followed by a move up to 90 or so.

Visa: Support at 63 held and I think Visa is headed higher.