Friday, August 21, 2015

Guesstimates on August 21, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2008-2034. I think we have just seen a genuine downside breakout from the February-August trading range. All three of my long term trend indicators are below their 200 day moving averages. My downside target for this decline is the October 2014 low at 1813.
QQQ:  Downside target is 99.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market continues to oscillate in a 1.08-1.14 trading range. But I think the ECB’s QE program will push the euro down to 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.
October Crude:  Support stand in the 40-41 zone.
December Gold:  Resistance above the market  at 1147 was taken out yesterday but 1170 should be at least a temporary ceiling.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google:  GOOG will probably drop to 635 before its bull market resumes.
Apple:  There is no reason yet for thinking the bull market is over although the drop below the 200 day moving average is cause for concern. AAPL is headed for 100-105.
Facebook: Support is at 80.
Twitter: TWTR is headed for 25 and then to 18.
Alibaba: BABA has reached its 70 target but I now expect continuation downward to 55-60.
Visa: Upside target at 72 has been reached but there is no sign that the advance is over. Next stop is 80. Support is still 63.

1 comment:

Artur Artur said...

Carl, crude is going down...