Friday, February 26, 2016

Guesstimates on February 26, 2016

March S&P E-mini Futures: Stimulated by the rally in crude oil the ES has reached the 1968 midpoint of the drop from the May 2015 top to its February low point. I think the market is about to drop substantially, But if instead the ES establishes itself above 1968 the longer term picture will become much more bullish and I would then have to abandon my “down to 1727 scenario).
QQQ:  Support in the Q’s is 94-95 and resistance is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): While I still think that the market yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months it is likely that a historical low near 1.30% will be reached first.  
Euro-US Dollar:  The market is headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support at 116 has failed. It looks like a new bear market has started which has bearish implications for world and for Japanese stock markets. Next downside target is 108.
April Crude: The 24 level is long term support.
April Gold:  a new bull market has begun in gold. The market bounced off of 1260 resistance. Support is at 1175 and the next upside target is 1315.
March Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance is at 16.25.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  APPL has dropped below 100 so 90 is the likely next stop.
Facebook: Resistance is now 120. Support is 95.
Twitter: Twitter is probably headed for 10.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 75 and next downside target is 57.
Visa: Support is at 70.

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