my last stock market update sentiment at the February 2016 low point was the most bearish since the 2009 low and this is another reason for thinking we are seeing a classic "kickoff" rally.
I think the US stock market will soon rise above its 2015 high points. Note that the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line has already done so. The rally off of the 2011 low points doubled the S&P 500 index during the subsequent 3 1/2 years. So I think a 50% rally off the the February 2016 low in the S&P 500 over two years is a reasonable projection. An upward swing that big would bring the S&P 500 to 2700.
Of course every extended stock market swing is interrupted by substantial but temporary moves in the opposite direction. In this case I don't think there will any danger of a big drop in the US stock market, say one of between s5% and 10%, until the 5 day moving average of the put-call ratio drops to levels comparable to those seen near the 2015 high points.