Friday, September 30, 2016

Guesstimates on September 30, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has bounced off of the 2136 midpoint between the 2100.25 low and the 2172.75 high four times during the past three days. I think a drop visibly below 2136 would now be quite bearish and I would not then expect support near 2124 to hold very long. If this latter level does fail a drop well below 2100 will be underway and would probably carry to the Brexit low at 1980. On the bullish side of the ledger I think that the 2200 level will be a ceiling until a drop big enough to generate substantially more pessimism develops.
QQQ:  The 120 level is resistance.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think a substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% or so.
Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. Resistance is 104-106. Next downside target is 95.
November Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.
December Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. Support is now at 1280. Next upside target is 1420.
December Silver: Silver exceeded the 20.00 target by more than a dollar. Next upside target is 25.00. Support now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Support is at 120. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Twitter is attempting a breakout from its recent 6 month trading range. Breakout support is at 20 and if this level holds TWTR will be headed for 25 and then for 36.
Alibaba: Support is now at 98. Next upside target is 125.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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