Monday, January 23, 2017

Guesstimates on January 23, 2017

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has been stuck in a narrow range for 6 weeks now and has spent much of that time right in the middle of that range. I’d say an upside breakout is a little more likely than a downside breakout. But even a downside breakout is unlikely to carry the ES much below its December 30 low at 2228. On the other hand I expect 2017 to be a bullish year for the U.S. stock market. The next upside target is the 2325-45 zone.  
QQQ:  The 120.50 level was strong resistance because it was the historical high which the Q’s established 17 years ago in March of 2000. The Q’s have recently moved above this level. If they can hold support at 120 the next upside target will be 125-26. In any case this average should move generally higher in 2017.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support in the 10 year note yield is at 2.25%. Next upside targets will be 2.85%  and then 3.40%. The 10 year yield is well above its 200 day moving average which suggests that a sustained rise in yields is underway. I think this paradoxically is a very bullish omen for world stock markets.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 112. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude is in a bull market. The 56-58 upside target has nearly been reached. Support remains at 45, Next upside target is 62.
February Gold:  Gold is headed back to its 1035 low and quite possibly lower.
March Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.
Facebook: Support at 112. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Breakout support at 20 is likely to stop the current rally. TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: The 85-90 zone is strong support and I expect BABA to swing up to 125 from there.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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