Thursday, August 03, 2017

Guesstimates on August 3, 2017

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has moved above 2469 resistance and now is probably headed for 2500. The ES is likely to trade well above 2500 by the end of the year.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: The old top at 117 has been exceeded by 200 pips, strong evidence that resistance there has failed. Upside target now is 122 while support is at 115. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Resistance at 48 has failed. Crude is now headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
December Gold:  Resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
September Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 was nearly reached but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: I think BABA will soon rally into the 160-65 zone.
Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.

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