Monday, November 26, 2018
Guesstimates on November 26, 2018
December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is headed for support in the 2593-2603 range. A swing above the 2670 level first would be short term bullish and likely to continue to 2722. But any up trend past 2722 would remove my longer term bearish concerns, at least temporarily. If selling pressure instead keeps a lid on this market the decline from an obvious lower top at 2818 on November 8 makes it likely that a bear market has begun. If the decline from the September 21 top at 2947 matches the 23% drop in 2011 it will carry the ES down to 2269.
QQQ: The downside target remains 155 but if a bear market is underway this will only be a temporary support point.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: A drop visibly below 50 would be likely to continue to 43 and possibly lower.
Gold: Downside target is 1125 and resistance is 1225.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple: AAPL dropped below 198 support and is headed for 160.
Facebook: FB now headed for 125.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 in the face of the tech massacre and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.