Monday, May 06, 2019
Guesstimates on May 6, 2019
June S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s rally had convinced me that a swing back to and above 2961 had started. But more trade war news yesterday dropped the ES 50 points to a level about eight points above support at 2875. A drop below 2862 would be the biggest since the 2316 low was made and probably mean that a bigger decline of 200-300 points is underway. Looking beyond any such decline the Lindsay basic advance which started from the December low is likely to last two years and carry the ES to 3500 or so.
QQQ: Support is at 181. The market is headed for 230-240 during the next 18 months.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: Upside target is 112.50. The Dollar-yen is headed above 115.
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude is headed back to 76. Support is at 59.
Gold: Gold is headed down to 1250-60 and a bigger drop to 1170 is at least an even bet.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: 1150 is support. Google is headed for 1350.
Apple: Resistance at 185 has morphed into support. This means that AAPL is headed for new bull market highs.
Facebook: FB is headed for new bull market highs.
Twitter: TWTR has staged an upside breakout from its long 27-36 trading range. Support is now 34-36. TWTR is on its way to its all time high at 74.
Alibaba: Resistance at 175 has morphed into support. This is bullish action and implies that a swing up to new bull market highs is underway.
Visa: V has reached the 160-65 target zone. Support is now at 153 and next upside target is 175.