Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Guesstimates on April 21, 2020

June S&P E-mini Futures:  A drop of 200 points or so from Friday’s 2885 top is underway. That said, the March 23 low at 2174 almost surely ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market has begun. I think the Fed’s new QE program is very bullish long term while the Corona Crisis shows definite signs of having passed its peak. Bearish sentiment and volatility remain high and this reinforces my view that the 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ: Support is 165.
TNX (ten year note yield): Downside target is 0.00.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: The spot month, May, dropped well below zero yesterday while June, the front month, dropped to 11 in overnight trading today. This market is in a chaotic state and I think the low in the June contract will develop around 9, the 1986 low. This collapse will soon end and oil will then begin a new bull market.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone but the collapse in oil prices so far has pushed gold a little past the lower edge of this zone. A drop below 1660 would convince me that support has failed and that a long term drop is underway.
Silver: Sit now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Support at 1000 held. Upside target is now 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 is the upside target. Support at 2000.
Facebook:  Upside target is 225.
Twitter: Resistance is at 30. A swing visibly above there would be very bullish.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: The 178 level is resistance. A swing visibly above there will continue past 215.

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