Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support at 456. Next upside target is 495.

IBM: Will probably react to 103 and then rally to 115.

GS: Resistance is now at 233 and I am looking for a break to 216 or so. After that a move to 250.

CME: Should drop in line with the general market and reach support which now stands at 487. From there I expect to see a rally at least to 560.

MO: Support is at 68. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: Support is at 118. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at103. Next upside target is 116.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: I now think the trend is up and that ICE is headed for 175. Meantime support is at 125.

NYX: I still think NYX will drop below its recent low at 79.31, this time finding support around the 75 level. After that a rally to 115 will become likely.

NMX: Lower tops show increasing weakness. I think NMX is about to break to 107.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50.

SHLD: I think SHLD is about to drop below initial support at 175 but it should hold the 168 level . Upside target is now 215.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Amazon should stall temporarily at 67 and react down to 63 or so. After that look for a rally to 76.

EBAY: Support is at 31.50. Upside target is 37.

WMT: We have seen a third lower top in WMT so I think it is headed for 41. I am abandoning my 55 target.

US Dollar and US Assets

The first chart you see above this post appeared in Floyd Norris' column "Off the Charts" in the Saturday, May 19 edition of the New York Times. Norris observed that Americans are now purchasing foreign long term assets at a record rate. This remains true even if one adjusts the numbers you see above for the growth in US GDP since 1993, the last time a peak in purchases of foreign assets occurred.

What are we to make of this? I am relentlessly bullish on the prospects for US economic growth vis a vis the rest of the world over the next 5-20 years. Obviously my long term views are not currently shared by many of my countrymen. But I feel quite comfortable holding the minority view on this matter. I think the numbers you see above are telling us that we are seeing an extreme in pessimism about the US dollar and about US dollar denominated assesets in general.

The second chart you see above this post is a monthly chart of the US Dollar index. The last time we saw such levesl of pessimism about the prospects for dollar denominated assets was in the early 1990's. Then the dollar index was trading at levels similar to those we see today.

I conclude from this that dollar denominated assets will outperform foreign currency assets for the next 5 years at least. Sell your estate on the Riviera and buy in Palm Springs. Moreover, US stocks will be at the top of the world performance charts, adjusted for currency fluctuations, for the next 5-10 years.

Guesstimates on May 22, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: I think that 153.20 in the Spiders is strong resistance and that the market will soon drop to 150.00. Resistance in the futures is at 1535 and I expect this market to drop to 1500 or so. After this upcoming reaction is complete the Spiders should rally into the 155-157 range.

QQQQ: I think this market will soon break to 45.00. Resistance is 47.40. After this reaction I expect to see the Q’s trade near 50 or higher later this year.

TLT - June Bonds: I think that this market is headed for 108-110. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds and will probably drop to 85.80.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 106-20.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 136.70.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I think XLE will stall near 68 and that OIH will reach 175, both new bull market highs. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO should bounce off of resistance near 50.60 and then drop to 45 or lower. July crude has nearly completed a rally phase which will probably carry it to a lower top near 68.00.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here is an hourly chart of the June S&P futures. The Spiders chart looks the same after dividing prices by 10. I last commented on this market here.

I think the 1535 level will prove to be strong resistance in the futures and that the Spiders will encounter strong resistance at 153.20. I expect the subsequent reaction to be comparable to the reaction of late March which dropped the futured from 1451 to 1418 or 33 points. (3.30 points in the Spiders). So the downside target is 1500 in the June futures and 150 in the Spiders. After this break I think the market will rally to new bull market highs.

I should point out in passing that the Spiders made a very important top on September 1, 2000 at the 153.60 level which ended a big, 4 and 1/2 month rally. This was a close test of the bull market high of March 2000 at 155.75. As a rule a market becomes vulnerable to a substantial reaction once it approaches and old top of significance. The Spiders are near the September 2000 top right now but I think the reaction will be relatively mild. I am looking for a much bigger reaction once the Spiders get close to their 2000 top at 155.75.

The Q's have been noticable underperforming the Spiders for the past few weeks. This is another sign that a reaction in the general market is imminent. I expect the Q's to drop to 45.00 and then to rally to new bull market highs.

Guesstimates on May 21, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Upside target for the Spiders remains 153.20. I think a three point break is imminent and will carry the market down to 150.00 before another rally to new highs can begins. The S&P’s target is still 1535 but I think a break from there to 1500 (or 1515 in the September contract) will be the next development.

QQQQ: The Q’s haven’t been able to rally as much as I expected and are underperforming the Spiders. I think this market will stall near 46.80 and then break to 45.00. I still think that we shall see the Q’s trade near 50 or higher later this year.

TLT - June Bonds: I think that this market is headed for 108-110. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds and will probably drop to 85.80. .

June 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 106-20.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 136.70.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I think XLE will stall near 68 and that OIH will reach 175, both new bull market highs. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO should bounce off of resistance near 50.60 and then drop to 45 or lower. July crude is in a rally phase which will probably carry it to a lower top near 68.00.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLVis on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 506 while support is at 456.

Guesstimates on May 18, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support remains at 150.00 in the Spiders and 1502 in the S&P’s. I think that the Spiders are headed up to 153.20 and the S&Ps are headed up to 1535.

QQQQ: The Q’s should hold above support at 45.80 and head up to 48.10. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 106-20. Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 136.70.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. July crude is in a rally phase which will probably carry it to a lower top near 68.00.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

Guesstimates on May 17, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support today is again at 150.00 in the Spiders and 1502 in the S&P’s. I think that the Spiders are headed up to 153.20 and the S&Ps are headed up to 1535.

QQQQ: The Q’s should hold above support at 45.80 and head up to 48.10. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 106-20. Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 136.70.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

How Much Farther?

During the past few days I have been trying to evaluate the stock market's upside potential from current levels. In my 2007 stock market forecast I estimated a top for May 17 using George Lindsay's theory of basic advances and declines. Over the past months I have used this projection as a guide for interpreting two current examples of Lindsay's famous Three Peaks and a Domed house pattern.

While I love to predict the future my only real committment as a speculator is to stayed glued to the trend as evidenced by the market's pattern of higher lows and highs or lower lows and highs. I never trade my forecast per se unless it is consistent with what I see as the developing trend.

To get a handle on the market's trend and the trend's likely points of reversal I use a few simple statistical devices. I have commented on two of these recently.

The first chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The blue line is the 20 day moving average of this number. In a recent post I explained that in a bull market tops are most likely to occur during a time span beginning 2 months after the moving average peak and ending 4 months after the peak. In the current situation this method calls for a top for the current upswing sometime between June 16 and August 16.

In a separate post I noted the lengths of previous upswings in the bull market which started from the 2002 lows. Using the Spiders as an index I projected a top for the current upswing at 156.70 (vs. the current level of 151.00).

Along the same lines I should also add that these bull market upswings lasted anywhere from 4 to 8 months. So the top for the upswing which began on March 14, 2007 should be expected in the July 14 to November 14 time frame.

For these reasons I no longer believe that the May 17 date first mentioned in my 2007 stock market forecast will be a significant market top.

An expectation more in line with the statistical consideration just discussed would be for a July top. There is even a 1 in 3 chance that the market will be stronger than even I expect and continue its advance to late October or early November.

The second chart above this post shows a slightly revised version of the basic advances and declines in the Dow. The two alternatives for a top date are July 13 and October 30.

In the third and fourth charts above this post you see my current interpretations of two separate domed house portions of two distinct Three Peaks and a Domed House formation.

The third chart shows the long term formation. Note that I have renumbered the recent action so that the March low is point 20, the end of the five reversals part of the domed house, instead of point 22, a low within the top of the entire formation. I have also pushed the projected top, point 23, to July 13.

The fourth chart shows a minor version of the three peaks and domed house. Note that the rally from point 10, the March low, has been fast and furious so far. In particular, there has been no sign yet of the 5 reversals part of the formation which normally preceeds point 23. For this reason I feel quite comfortable pushing point 23 for this formation to July 13 as well.

Guesstimates on May 16, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support today is again at 150.00 in the Spiders and 1502 in the S&P’s. I think that the Spiders are headed up to 153.20 and the S&Ps are headed up to 1535.

QQQQ: The Q’s should hold above support at 45.80 and head up to 48.10. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.
June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 136.70.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support at 456. Next upside target is 495.

IBM: Upside target is 110.

GS: Support at 198. Upside target is 235.

CME: Now headed up to 630. Support is at 516.

MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: Support is at 115. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 92. Next upside target is 116.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: I now think the trend is up and that ICE is headed for 175. Meantime support is at 125.

NYX: Headed down to 77 then up to 115.

NMX: Headed down to 115.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50.

SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Support is at 56. Upside target is 67.

EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.

WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.

Guesstimates on May 15, 9:10 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: It looks like the reaction ended late Thursday and stopped shy of my targets of 149.00 in the Spiders and 1494 in the S&P’s. Support today is at 150.00 in the Spiders and 1502 in the S&P’s. I now that the Spiders are headed up to 153.20 and the S&Ps are headed up to 1535.

QQQQ: The Q’s held above support at 45.80 and are now headed up to 48.10. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 135.80.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

Guesstimate on May 14, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: It now looks like the reaction ended late Thursday and stopped shy of my targets of 149.00 in the Spiders and 1494 in the S&P’s. I now think that the Spiders are headed up to 153.20 and the S&Ps are headed up to 1535.

QQQQ: The Q’s held above support at 45.80 and are now headed up to 48.10. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 135.80.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 456.

Guesstimate on May 11, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are on their way to support near 149.00 and the futures should drop to support near 1494. From those levels I expect the market to start a rally which will carry the futures to 1538 and the Spiders to 153.30.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.80. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. Yesterday’s break below 135.00 is good evidence that an extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while I am lowering my support estimate to 456 from 465.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P future and the Spiders. My data feed for the Q's is broken at the moment so I can't show you a chart for that market. I last commented on these markets here.

I think the S&P's will find support near 1493 and the Spiders near 149.00. From those levels I expect the market to rally to a new bull market high. Upside target for the S&P's is 1536 and for the Spiders is 153.30.

The Q's should hold support near 45.90 and then rally to 47.50.

Guesstimates on May 10, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are on their way to support near 149.00 and the futures should drop to support near 1494. From those levels I expect the market to start a rally which will carry the futures to 1538 and the Spiders to 153.30.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.80. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

Guesstimates on May 9, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are on their way to support near 149.00 and the futures should drop to support near 1494. From those levels I expect the market to start a rally which will carry the futures to 1538 and the Spiders to 153.30.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.80. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: A bond close above 112-08 would turn me bullish but failing that I will stick with my view that this market is headed for 108-16. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level would mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support at 465. Next upside target is 495.

IBM: Next upside target is 110.

GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.

CME: Headed down to 495 then up to 630.

MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: Support is at 115. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 92. Next upside target is 108.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Headed down to 116 then up to 150.

NYX: Headed down to 77 then up to 115.

NMX: Headed down to 115.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.

SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Support is at 56. Upside target is 67.

EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.

WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.

Guesstimates on May 8, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are on their way to support near 149.00 and the futures should drop to support near 1494. From those levels I expect the market to start a rally which will carry the futures to 1538 and the Spiders to 153.30.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.80. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: The bonds have moved decisively above resistance at 111-20. A strong close today if accompanied by a strong close in the 10 year notes will turn me bullish on these markets. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10 and a close above the 108-16 level today will mean that the trend has turned upward.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.40. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

No Punch at This Party

The bull market which began in October 2002 from the 7200 level in the Dow and the 768 level in the S&P is now well into its fifth year. The Dow has already moved well above its 2000 bull market peak of 11750 while the S&P cash index is getting close to its previous bull market high of 1553. Despite this I think that investors are not having much fun at this bull market party. (My last comment on the state of market sentiment can be found here. )

The most remarkable statistic I have seen lately can be found in the chart above (courtesy of DecisionPoint.com). It depicts the weekly sentiment numbers of the poll conducted by the Association of Individual Investors. The weekly bullish percentages are the green vertical bars, the bearish percentages are the red vertical bars, and the ratio of these two are the purple bars at the bottom of the chart.

Last week's bearish percentage was the highest it has been in almost a year despite the fact that the averages were all at new bull market highs at the time the poll was taken. It seems that individual investors were so traumatized by the 2 week drop in late February-early March of 2007 that they are now determined to pick the top of this rally and thereby avoid the pain of the next reaction. An even more plausible interpretation is that many investors thought the late February drop was the start of a bear market and therefore abandoned their investment positions. Now they are hoping for a reaction to so that they may repurchase the longs they sold two months ago. In either case I think that this sort of bearish sentiment seen at new rally highs means that the top is not yet in sight.

The same message comes through in three recent items in the New York Times. I have always done well by fading the Times and for this reason it is my single most reliable contrary opinion tool. Previous examples of this can be found here, here, and here. (All my contrary opinion posts can be found here.)

This past Saturday the Times again editorialized, this time on the economy instead of the stock market. The Times said: " If this strain on family finances ends up curbing consumer spending, the economy at large will be in danger of recession. [.....] When the next downturn hits in force, it will become painfully clear that American workers have not shared in the benefits of Bush-era econopmic growth..." The New York Times has been anticipating an imminent recession for the past three years. One of these years they will be right.

The next two items are the last two "Off The Charts" columns by Floyd Norris which appear each Saturday in the Times business section. Now I happen to like Norris's work and he often has interesting things to say. In fact he even "called" the bottom of the bear market in a July 2002 column. Nonetheless, Norris is like every other jounalist in the sense that he does well by telling people what they want to hear.

His April 28 column was entitled " The Dow May Be at Its High, but Its Performance Is Still Lacking". He points out in this column that the majority of Dow stocks are still below their year 2000 peaks even while the average is above its corresponding top.

His May 5 column was entitled "A Comeback for the S&P (If the Yardstick is Dollars)". Here he observes that the S&P in dollar terms has recovered most of its 2000-2002 bear market but in terms of various foreign currencies or in terms of oil there has been little or no recovery.

Both these columns give investors reason to doubt the bullish significance of the recent new highs in the averages. Norris asks his readers in effect : " Who are you going to believe, me or your own lyin' eyes ??". This attitude I also take as evidence that no significant top in the averages is likely anytime soon.

Guesstimates on May 7, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: I think that the futures will react 20-25 points and the Spiders 2 to 2 ½ points from here before resuming the bull move to new highs. Resistance in the Spiders is at151.20 and resistance in the futures is at 1517.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.80. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. The market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: Both XLE and OIH have hit or closely approached their targets at 65 and 165 respectively. I think the next significant move in both will be downward. USO is headed for 45. June crude is headed for support at 56.50.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and then drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

Guesstimates on May 4, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders should reach their 151.20 near term target today since the futures have already hit 1517 in early morning trading. Support in the Spiders is at 149.00 and in the S&P’s support stands at 1495. Next upside targets are 152.60 and 1532 respectively.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 46.50. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. The market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

S&P Bull Market Boxes

Here is a weekly chart of the cash S&P 500 index. I last commented on this chart here.

As you know I think that the bull market which began from the October 2002 low at 768 has been controlled by boxes which are about 185 S&P points high. I have drawn these on the chart above. The February-March 2007 reaction was the first of the bull market which did not either start or end on the divisions of the boxes you see above. I think this is a warning that these boxes which have functioned so well for 4 years are loosing their predictive power.

I want to point out that the February-March reaction started near the 3/4 division point of a box and ended near the 1/4 division point of the same box. I am guessing that the market now will start respecting the 3/4 and 1/4 division points of these boxes instead of the 1/2 division point and the box boundary itself. If so the next upside target is about 1560 which is the 1/4 division point of the next higher box.

Guesstimates on may 3, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 148.50 and in the S&P’s is at 1492. Next upside targets are151.20 in the Spiders and 1517 in the S&P’s.

QQQQ: Next upside target in the Q’s is at 47.30 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. The market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

Guesstimates on May2, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 147.50 and in the S&P’s is at 1487. Next upside targets are151.20 in the Spiders and 1517 in the S&P’s.

QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is at 46.70 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. The market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's.

All three markets went below the support I cited in this morning's guesstimate. Nonetheless, I think the reaction is over and that the S&P's are headed for 1517, the Spiders for 151.20, and the Q's for 47.30.

If I am wrong and this reaction has further to go then I would expect the S&P's to drop to 1474, the Spiders to 146.80 and the Q's to 45.40 before the move to the next upside target begins.

Guesstimates on May 1, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 148.20 and in the S&P’s is at 1490. Next upside targets are151.00 in the Spiders and 1517 in the S&P’s.

QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is at 46.70 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. The market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support at 465. Next upside target is 495.

IBM: Next upside target is 110.

GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.

CME: Headed down to 495 then up to 630.

MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: Support is at 115. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 92. Next upside target is 108.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Headed down to 116 then up to 150.

NYX: Headed down to 77 then up to 115.

NMX: Headed down to 115.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.

SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 67.

EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.

WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.

Dow Domed House

Here are two daily charts of the Dow industrials. The first one shows the market's current position in what I think is a developing George Lindsay Domed House formation. The second one shows the market's postion in what I think is a minor example of a Domed House formation. I last commented on this subject here.

For the past several months I have been guessing that the top of the domed house, point 23 in the first chart, would occur on May 17. But in the meantime the 20 day moving average of the daily count of advancing issues on the New York Stock Exchange has given a contrary indication.

It suggests that a top is not likely until mid-June at the earliest and possibly not until mid-August.

In my last post I suggested that the Spiders would probably reach 156.70 and the S&P cash index 1567 before the upmove from the March 14 low is complete. I think the market will need more that three weeks to reach this target.

All in all I now believe that the current advance will carry past the projected top date of May 17. My best guess now is that point 23 in both formations will develop in mid-July near the Dow 13700 level.

The standard price projection for the drop after the point 23 top calls for a low near Dow 10700 late this year or early next.

The Next Top

Here is a weekly chart of the Spiders. (Multiply by 10 to get the cash S&P.)

The art of forecasting amounts to choosing an appropriate precedent for the current market condition. In the case of the Spiders I think the March 14 low at 136.75 was a low comparable in importance to the lows of August 2004, April 2005, October 2005, and June 2006.

On the chart above I have marked the percentage increase in the Spiders after each of these lows. I think it is reasonable to expect the advance from the March 14 low to be comparable to the advances from the preceeding four lows in the bull market. On this basis one can project targets at levels ranging from 150 to 163. Throwing out the lowest and the highest of these targets and averaging the remaining two gives an ideal target of 156.72. This is just a shade over the 2000 bull market top at 155.70.

Guesstimates on April 30, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 148.20 and in the S&P’s is at 1490. Next upside targets are151.00 in the Spiders and 1517 in the S&P’s.

QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is at 46.70 while support stands at 45.90. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. Resistance above the market in the bonds is at 111-20 and the next downward swing should carry the market to 108-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance in the notes is at 108-10. Th market is headed for the 105-16 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is making a top at the same level as the December ’04 high of 136.66. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: I am expecting a top in XLE near 65 and in OIH near 165. USO is headed for 45. June crude has resistance at 66.80 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold has bounced off of resistance at 696 and is now headed below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV has bounced off of resistance near 141 and is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 495 while support is at 465.

I'mmm Ba-a-ack

Thanks to all of you who offered encouragement and best wishes for a speedy recovery. My hip is doing better than expected for 10 days after surgery.

Next post will be Monday's guesstimate.

Into the Shop for Repairs

Tomorrow I shall have a new hip installed. This is going to keep me away from my office until Monday, April 30. With some luck I might be back a few days earlier than that.

Looking forward to seeing you all then.

Guesstimates on April 17, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 145.30 and in the S&P’s is at 1462. Next upside targets are148.70 in the Spiders and 1495 in the S&P’s.

QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

Advancing Issues

Here is a line chart showing the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The solid blue line is the 20 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

Today the 20 day moving average has moved to the highest level it has seen in more than a year. In particular it is higher than at any time since the June 14 low in 2006. Based on my observations this means that the market averages will trend higher for a least two more months and perhaps for as many as four more months. In other words, a bull market top is not likely until mid-June at the earliest.

This conflicts with the Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House projection for a top in mid-May, a projection which was supported by an analysis of Lindsay's basic advances and declines.

Right now I am inclined to go with the indications of the advancing issues indicator and this leads me to expect that the top of the domed house will be delayed at least until mid-June, or that point 27 will be the top of the bull market, not point 23.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

This morning the Spiders reached a new high for the bull market which began from the 2002 low. The futures are not far behind, so far having fallen shy of a new bull market high by 0.50 points.

The futures and the Spiders have each reached what I think will be short term resistance. A reaction in the futures down to 1462 and in the Spiders down to 145.30 would be normal at this juncture.

The Q's have yet to reach 45.70 resistance but I think they will hold support at 44.40 on any reaction from current levels.

I still think this bull market has further to go. The futures should trade around 1520, the Spiders around 152 and the Q's near 50 before any substantial drop begins.

Nasdaq Composite

Here is a weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite index. I last commented on this chart here.

I think this average is headed for the 2650-2750 zone, about midway between the resistance lines defined by 1/2 of the all time high and 2 and 5/8 of the 2002 low.

Right now I think it is likely that when that zone is reached we shall see a reaction bigger than any visible on the chart above.

Guesstimates on April 16, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for 146.50 and the S&P’s to 1475. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

Yesterday's low point occurred a bit above the levels I was anticipating in that morning's guesstimate. In any case the rally to 1475 in the S&P's, t0 146.50 in the Spiders, and to 45.70 in the Q's is underway.

I think we shall see the S&P's and Spiders trade up to 1520 or so during the next couple of months. I am looking for the Q's to make it to the 50 level during the same time.

Guesstimates on April 13, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders have started a rally which should carry them to 146.50. The S&P’s should reach the 1475 level at the same time. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The Q’s are now headed for 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has moved above resistance at 134.70 and the next stopping point is the 136.40 level, just a shade below the December ’04 high. I still think that the market will drop below the 130 level before it hits 137.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123. Support is at 118.00. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should resume its bear market soon and the 153 level is strong resistance. USO is headed for 45. May crude has resistance at 65.20 and a move from there to 60.00 and lower should develop soon.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

Guesstimates on April 12, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The market continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lows over the past few days so I now think the Spiders will drop to 143.00 before the move up to 146.50 starts. For the same reason I think the futures will drop a bit further to 1439 before starting to move up to 1475. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The Q’s should find support near 43.80 and then move up to resistance at 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly chart of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

The reaction started from lower levels than I anticipated and consequently has carried these markets a little lower than I expected. However I think it is just about over and that a move to new rally highs is imminent.

Guesstimates on April 11, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. Support is 144.00. The futures are headed for 1462. Support is 1450. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support at 460. Next upside target is 500.

IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.

GS: Support at 198. Next upside target is 235.

CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.

MO: Support is at 66. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.

NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.

NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.

SHLD: Support is at 175. Upside target is 210.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.

EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.

WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.

Guesstimates on April 10, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1462. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

The move up from the March 14 low still has quite a bit further to go in my opinion. I expect to see the futures trade in the 1520-30 zone, the Spiders in the 151-152 zone and the Q's in the 50-51 zone sometime during the next two or three months.

Meantime I see very temporary resistance in the S&P's at 1462, in the Spiders at 145.20, and in the Q's at 45.00. After a brief reaction I think all three markets will then proceed to new highs for the rally as indicated.

Guesstimates on April 9, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and June gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.

May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

Guesstimates on April 5, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.

May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.

Domed House Update

Above this post you will see two daily bar charts of the Dow Industrial average. I have labeled the first chart to show what I think are the turning points in the current domed house portion of George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. I last commented on this here. I have labeled the second chart to show the turning points of a minor Three Peaks and a Domed house formation which I think began last November. I last commented on this minor formation here.

I think we have seen points 10 and 14 in the minor formation (blue numbering on second chart above). The prognosis is for a move to new bull market highs. I think blue point 23 will develop near Dow 13300.

In the major formation (first chart, red numbering) point 22 occurred on March 14 and the market is now in its rally to point 23. This will coincide with blue point 23 near the Dow 13300 level.

In a previous post I suggested that May 17 is a likely date for a top based on calculations using Lindsay's theory of basic advances and declines. This is still my best guess for the timing of point 23.

Guesstimates on April 4, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for their next resistance at 145.20. The futures are headed for 1465. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 45.00. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support and I think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO has rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 675.

May Silver: Silver has resistance at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 455.

Tale of the Tape

Today I am introducing a new feature for this blog. It is a list of my shorter term views on a number of stocks I follow. I expect to update these views a couple of times a week or as necessary in reponse to developments.

LEADERS:

GOOG: Support at 450. Next upside target is 500.

IBM: Support at 90. Next upside target is 110.

GS: Support at 190. Next upside target is 235.

CME: Support is 525. Next upside target is 630.

MO: Support is at 55. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:

BIDU: Support is at 90. Upside target is 150.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 88. Next upside target is 108.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Support is at 116. Next upside target is 150.

NYX: Support is at 87. Next upside target is 125.

NMX: Support is at 125. Next upside target is 145.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Resistance is 65. Downside target is 50.

SHLD: Support is at 165. Upside target is 210.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Support is at 37. Upside target is 50.

EBAY: Support is at 30. Upside target is 40.

WMT: Support is at 45. Upside target is 55.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on this market here.

You can see that today's first hour was a wide range up bar and a breakout from the recent 4 day trading range. I think that the futures are now headed for 1465, the Spiders for 145.20 and the Q's to 45.00. This in turn is only part of a more extensive rally which I think will carry the futures up above 1500 and the Spiders above 150. The Q's should reach 50 or higher.

Guesstimates on April 3, 8:50 am ET

Guesstimates on April 2, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 140.50 and in the futures it is at 1415. The next significant move will be upward to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: I am looking for a move up to 46.50.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support yesterday and I now think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 675.

May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.