Guesstimates on January 6, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2012-2032. The market is headed for 1975 or so.

QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality will end near 1.80% and be followed by a move to and above the 3.00% level.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB promised quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program has dropped the Euro into the 1.18-1.20 target zone. There is strong support here which extends as low as 1.16. I think the Euro will hold support for a while but that it eventually will be broken. The ensuing drop would probably put the Euro below 1.00.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.

February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is now at 98.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

Guesstimates on January 5, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2025-2045. The market is sagging below support at 2040 and unless it quickly reestablishes itself above that level I think it is headed for 1975 or so.

QQQ: The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB's promised quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program has dropped the Euro into the 1.18-1.20 target zone. There is strong support here which extends as low as 1.16. I think the Euro will hold support for a while but that it eventually will be broken. The ensuing drop will probably put the Euro below 1.00.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.

February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290.

Guesstimates on January 2, 2015

NOTE: I wrote this before the opening today but for some reason got distracted and didn't post it.

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2056-2070. I think Wednesday’s low will hold but even if not the downside will be limited to 2040 or so. I still think the ES is headed for 2180-2220.

QQQ: The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.

February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290.