Monday, January 05, 2015

Guesstimates on January 5, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2025-2045. The market is sagging below support at 2040 and unless it quickly reestablishes itself above that level I think it is headed for 1975 or so.
QQQ: The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB's promised quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program has dropped the Euro into the 1.18-1.20 target zone. There is strong support here which extends as low as 1.16. I think the Euro will hold support for a while but that it eventually will be broken. The ensuing drop will probably put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290.

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