Friday, January 30, 2015

Guesstimates on January 30, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1997-2022. There have been four lows in the 1960-1985 zone during the past six weeks. For this reason any drop visibly below 1960 would have very bearish long term implications.    
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.65% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
February Gold:  Gold is headed up to 1350. Support is at 1240. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. I think silver has a shot at 19.60. Meantime support is at 16.90.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Support is at 98 has been broken decisively. I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.


Bill Marshall said...

4-yr cycle low was October. Now seeing very regular and often more significant 3.5-yr coming into play, which should bottom in March. (See lows : 2011, 3/2008, 2004, 3/2001, etc.)

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Ill mention the $nya again as it is full of fibonacci relationships with both time and price.
the triangle looks complete as of fridays close yet it looked complete thursday also .
monday is now important as far as im concerned for the short term bullish scenerio. adding the dow into the picture i find it amazing that the dow on daily close to close basis from the early jan high to jan low then the bounce and this present decline are almost identical is close high to close low price declines yet this latest drop has lasted 3.382 times longer and is as of fridays close 1.16 pts less of a decline .
again monday to me is now important if this market is going to go higher and the triangle on the NYA has any merrit then there is no more room left in the short term bullish scenerio.