Monday, February 02, 2015

Guesstimates on February 2, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1970-1998. Should the ES start accepting prices above 2000 I will switch to an estimate of 1988-2017. There have been four lows in the 1960-1985 zone during the past six weeks. For this reason any drop visibly below 1960 would have very bearish long term implications. In the mean time I think buyers will step in whenever the ES drops to one of these lows at 1982, 1970, and 1961.  
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.65% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
April Gold:  Gold is headed up to 1350. Support is at 1240. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. I think silver has a shot at 19.60. Meantime support is at 16.90.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Support is at 98 has been broken decisively. I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

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