Thursday, February 12, 2015

Guesstimates on February 12, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2067-88. The market is on its way to new bull market highs. But keep in mind that there have been four lows in the 1960-1985 zone during the past six weeks. For this reason any drop visibly below 1960 would have very bearish long term implications.
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.65% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
April Gold:  Gold has broken below its 1240 support level but is holding at the midpoint of the rally from 1132 which stands at 1220. Silver is holding well above its corresponding midpoint which stands at 16.30. If gold trade below 1220 for two or three days I will abandon my 1350 target and look for a drop to 1040 instead.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. I think silver has a shot at 19.60. Meantime support is at 16.30.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Twitter has Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.
Alibaba: I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

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