Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Guesstimates on February 18, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2092-2107. The market is headed above the 2200 level over the next couple of months.
QQQ: The current rally should carry to 112.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.65%. I think that low will hold and that the market is now headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
April Gold:  Yesterday gold dropped well below the 1220 midpoint of its rally and looks like it will spend today trading below there as well. This puts me back in the bear column for the intermediate term trend. The odds now favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months.
March Silver: I am abandoning my 19.60 upside target and now think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540. If GOOGL holds above 550 for a few days I will switch back to the bull column.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.
Alibaba: I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

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