Thursday, September 22, 2005

Guesstimates on September 22, 8:45 am ET

December S&P Futures: My best guess now is that the bottom of the trading box at 1211,  described in yesterday afternoon’s late post, will hold.  There is an outside chance of continuation down to 1202. In either case the next short term upside target is 1268.

December Bonds: I think a big move upward into the 121-123 range has begun.

December 10 Year Notes: I think the move up to 116 has started.  

December Eurocurrency: The rally should stall a previous support near 122.70 and then I think the market will drop to 120.80.  A decisive move above 123.00 will convince me instead  that the rally to 126.50 is underway.

November Crude: The 68.30 level should halt the move up from 63.20. We should see the 55.50 level in a few weeks.

December Gold: The market is spending time above the top of its box near 469 but I still think a reaction of at least 10 to 12 dollars is likely before the up move resumes.

Google: 290 is support; upside target is 343.  

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