Friday, July 28, 2006


Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart yesterday.

The market bounced off of support at 1268 and in this morning's guesstimate I said that I thought the bounce was the second phase rally and would stop around 1276. But the market is proving even stronger than I have expected and a short while ago broke above yesterday's high at 1281.75. I now think this upmove will continue to 1288 or so (the July 7 high was 1290 in electronic trading).

The main thing to keep in mind is that this upmove is only the initial stage of a move to 1350 and above which should develop over the next 3-4 months.


LowTax said...

Carl, do you expect a slight correction at 1288-1290?

gibaryan said...

i happened to save this link
some times ago, and incidentally i clicked it today.
Well, that was a hell of a call:
Adding 7 months 10 days to this predicts a top for the domed house on May 8.
The market topped 2 days later!
Reading your blog i see you're still bullish for a move to a new high.
What is it of that october call then?
It worked so perfectly that i wonder why you're dismissing it now (labelling also fit perfectly with the way the dow reached the top in may too).
I dont come here often, so maybe you've already written about this, but i'd appreciate if you could tell me more, or else link me to some earlier post.


Carl Futia said...


Thank for bringing my attention to that post. In fact I added incorrectly in that post. October 28, 2005 plus 7 months and 10 days gives a predicted top for JUNE 8, not for MAY 8 as I had written in that post.

I have just added a note to that post pointing out the error.


P.S. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than it is to be good!